Zohran Mamdani can win NYC mayoral election — despite New Yorkers disagreeing with progressive points: poll

Zohran Mamdani has enough support to win the mayoral election by just 15 points – and without the majority of votes — despite New Yorkers largely disagreeing with his progressive policies, a poll released Tuesday found.

The lefty Democratic nominee’s 43% support to Andrew Cuomo’s 28% in the new Manhattan Institute poll is a wider margin than late-game recent surveys showing a narrowing gap between the candidates.

But the survey found that if Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa — in a distant third place, with 19% support — were to drop out, the race would narrow considerably.

“In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Mamdani’s lead narrows but endures,” the poll states.

“Against Cuomo, he holds a 44–40% edge—mainaining a small advantage but leaving the former governor within striking distance. Against Sliwa, by contrast, Mamdani retains a 47–33% lead, reflecting both the city’s partisan lean and Sliwa’s limited appeal.”

The poll from the 600 likely voters surveyed last week also noted a “striking dissonance” between Mamdani’s electoral strength and actual support for his socialist dreams.

“New Yorkers favor harsher penalties for fare evasion, are eager to repeal the state’s 2019 bail reform law, have hesitations about making buses free, and support meritocracy in public education,” it noted.

A whopping 58% of respondents feared that making buses free could make them into rooming homeless shelters while 33% believed all fares should be eliminated, a key Mamdani campaign promise, the poll found.

Roughly 60% of those surveyed also wanted increased enforcement of subway evasion – another break from Mamdani’s public safety vision, the survey said.

Mamdani’s projected victory over independent candidate Cuomo was within the poll’s 4-point margin of error – making it the second recent survey to find a two-way contest could be a statistical photo finish.

The results also mirrored recent polls showing that Mamdani fails to break 50% of support from the electorate, signifying a clear break from the Democratic Party’s once-monolithic hold over New York City’s voters.

No New York City mayor has won with a clear majority since John Lindsay in 1969.

“Although this poll does take into account the higher turnouts among younger voters seen in the primary, a high turnout among young people could tip Mamdani over that majority threshold,” the Manhattan Institute said.