Why the economy may never return to pre-tariff levels

Terminal tariffs: More than a quarter of Americans fear the economy will “never” return to its pre-tariff levels, according to a new poll.

A survey of 2,000 U.S. adults found 29% believe the economy has permanently shifted due to tariffs. Among the remaining 71%, most don’t see a recovery happening anytime soon, with an average estimate taking it at least 19 months.

Tariffs have been a mainstay on the news for people, who said they either feel stressed (37%), angry (30%), overwhelmed (23%), or sad (18%) when the topic comes up.

Commissioned by UserTesting and conducted by Talker Research, 51% believe they have enough information about tariffs to understand how they can affect their everyday life.

For many, that understanding is grounded in firsthand experience: 70% reported price hikes in groceries this year, followed by restaurant prices (46%), gas (40%), clothing (38%), clothing accessories (28%), small electronics (25%) and vehicles (24%).

People recognized that many of those price increases were specifically due to tariffs, including vehicles (20%), large electronics (20%), small electronics (20%), and clothing accessories (17%).

Faced with rising costs, numerous Americans say they are rethinking how they shop. On some product categories, however, many respondents said they would likely stop spending their money if they saw tariff-based increases, with items like watches and jewelry (63%), furniture (61%), and large electronics (60%) being the first to get axed from the budget.

Price increases appear to be prompting broader behavioral shifts as well. More than seven in 10 (72%) said they’ve seen brands increase their prices across all their products as a result of tariffs, while 62% said they’ve also seen brands absorb the costs themselves.

Half of those who have seen prices increase said they’ve switched from their favorite brands to ones that promise lower costs.

Still, most Americans appear to be reserving judgment on how companies are handling tariff-related changes. Over half(54%) said their perceptions of brands haven’t changed as a result, and nearly three-quarters (72%) said the most important factor is transparency when prices go up.

“What stands out to me is how much people value transparency from brands,” explained Bobby Meixner, VP of Solutions Marketing at UserTesting. “Consumers understand that tariffs may be outside of a brand’s control. What they want is honesty when those changes impact pricing.”

Tariffs are also shaping wider lifestyle changes. Many respondents said they’re altering their behaviors in response to the current administration’s trade policies. Forty-two percent said they’re buying less overall.

Others reported switching to generic or store-brand products (31%), buying second-hand items more frequently (20%), traveling less (19%), and considering a second job or side hustle (19%).

In fact, 44% of respondents said tariffs have caused them to rethink their summer travel plans altogether.

Second-hand shopping is also on the rise. While 36% said they frequently shopped second-hand before, 47% say they’re doing so even more now, with 21% citing higher prices as the direct reason.

Compromises are becoming a part of daily life for many. Two in five (41%) said they’ve had to accept lower quality, brand, or product features due to tariff-related price hikes.

Many said they’ve had to compromise on groceries. “I’ve had to buy off brands that don’t taste as good due to tariffs,” recalled another respondent. “Most of the brands I’ve bought also expire quicker.”

“Whether tariffs remain or not, it’s clear they’ve already reshaped consumer habits,” continued Bobby Meixner. “Americans are adjusting to a new economic reality, and that shift may be here to stay.”
 
Survey methodology:

Talker Research surveyed 2,000 general population Americans; the survey was commissioned by UserTesting and administered and conducted online by Talker Research between June 4 and June 12, 2025.