Why it could pay off to wait on running backs in fantasy football drafts
Drafting running backs in fantasy football has gone through a dramatic change over the years.
In the days of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander, the position was at its peak in drafts and the first round was filled with them, because any of the top backs could win a week for you. Fantasy hipsters didn’t like that, so they forced PPR-scoring and Zero-RB draft strategies down our throats to try to level the playing field.
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This worked for a short time, but last season’s Year of the Running Back has now brought the position back to the level where it belongs.
And though we are seeing more running backs taken in the first and second rounds this year, it is important to realize where the best values at the position are and what you can do to take advantage. Not everyone is going to land a Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley, but you still can find high-end running backs at lower prices.
Perhaps opening your draft with a Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson is the way to go when you know there are strong running back options in the third and fourth rounds. Kenneth Walker and Chuba Hubbard are the perfect examples.
Though the fantasy football ADP doesn’t say so, Walker’s value took a serious increase when Seattle hired Klint Kubiak as its offensive coordinator. He, in turn, brought in legendary offensive line coach Rick Dennison, and the two are installing their run-first, outside-zone scheme.
Kubiak watched for years as his father, Gary, along with Dennison, churned out 1,000-yard rushers from the most obscure names. In Denver, it was Orlandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Reuben Droughns. In Houston, they did it with Steve Slaton and Arian Foster. They even took a solid Dalvin Cook and made him elite. The next steps for Walker are expected to be huge.
Fantasy Football DVQ: The only draft rankings you need
The latest incarnation of the Fantasy Madman’s football rating system has arrived. The nuts and bolts have been tweaked and strengthened, the breadth of the database was expanded, some ingredients were added to the soup, and some that were souring the stew were removed. So we’re leaner and more flavorful. Now allow us to serve you the latest helping of the Draft Value Quotient (DVQ).
The DVQ is a system that rates players across the board, balancing value based on positional depth. A player’s DVQ rating represents the point in the draft where projected production meets draft value. Each draft slot is assigned a value for expected production, which descends at a constant rate (same amount of expected points substracted from each descending pick). However, a player’s real-world production forms an arc (steep fall at top, then flattening out), therefore there are gaps in the ratings. Example: The top player might have a 1.0 DVQ, but the second-ranked player might have a DVQ of 13.3. Deeper in the draft pool, instead of big gaps, players will only be separated by percentage points.
So saddle up, study up, then queue up a draft, and take a ride with the DVQ.
A little further down the ADP charts is Hubbard, who, with the help of head coach Dave Canales, turned the Panthers’ ground game into a fantasy goldmine last season. Canales, if you remember, had a mediocre running back in Rachaad White at Tampa Bay and turned him into a top-five fantasy back thanks to the volume he received.
Last year, Canales did the same for Hubbard, elevating him from a 900-yard, five-touchdown player into a 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown player. How? Volume.
Hubbard is the only running back to own in Carolina because Canales is a throwback and likes to only use one guy. While everyone is chasing yardage and touchdowns with De’Von Achane and James Cook in the second round, you have that production, and potentially more, sitting there in the fourth.
They say you should always zig when the rest of the draft room zags, and that is, again, appropriate advice. If you understand the depth at the running back position this year, you don’t need to be a mindless drone and follow their lead. You can grab elite receivers in the first two rounds and add comparable running backs in the third and fourth. In the end, you’re easily coming out on top.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy football news and advice.
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