What to know about California’s Prop 50 — Gavin Newsom’s controversial redistricting attempt

To gerrymander or not to gerrymander?

That will be the question facing Californians on Tuesday in a special election that could reshape the balance of power in the state and the country for years to come.

Proposition 50, backed by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, would temporarily redraw the state’s electoral maps in a way that could help Democrats flip five Congressional seats in the 2026 midterms.

The new maps were hastily hashed out in August in response to a similar redistricting scheme in Texas designed to hand more seats to the Republicans. It’s a fight-fire-with-fire strategy meant to balance the scales in Washington.

As it currently stands, a bipartisan commission is in charge of California’s maps, not the state’s Democratic legislature. Prop 50 would give the legislature power to impose its own electoral maps for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections.

Newsom and his supporters are pretty transparent about their motives. The ballot item clearly states that Prop 50 “authorizes temporary changes to congressional district maps in response to Texas’ partisan redistricting.”

The question is whether left-leaning Californians are willing to try and out-gerrymander the gerrymanderers.

Why is California Prop 50 so controversial?

Prop 50 is a smoking hot item in California politics right now, with supporters and detractors bombarding voters with TV ads, billboards, and leaflets stuffed in their mailboxes.

An initial controversy surrounded whether to hold the special election at all, which Republicans in the State Assembly estimated would cost an already cash-strapped California more than $200 million.

As for Prop 50 itself: California voters typically despise gerrymandering. They voted to establish the independent body — the California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CRC) — that draws electoral maps in the late 00s amid a frenzy of anti-gerrymandering sentiment.

Now many of those same voters feel they’re being offered a deal with the Devil.

What are the arguments for and against Prop 50?

Proponents describe Prop 50 as a referendum on Trump’s dominion over Congress.

Texas’ redistricting bill — drawn up at Trump’s request and passed in August — was designed to add at least five House seats to Republicans, which could dash Democrats’ hopes of taking back the House.

As for the ethics of it: Turnabouts is fair play, supporters say, and it isn’t like they’re being sneaky about their motives. In fact, Newsom has gone so far as to call Prop 50 “the most transparent and democratic redistricting that’s ever been done in the United States of America.”

But beating Republicans at their own game could undermine the independent redistricting system Californians fought for.

Detractors include former governor Arnold Swartzenegger, who presided over the formation of the CRC. He condemned Democrats’ effort to “out-cheat” their opponents in an interview with CNN.

What is the likelihood Prop 50 passes?

Very high.

Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would vote “yes” on Prop 50, in a survey conducted earlier this month by the University of California Berkeley. Forty-three percent said they would vote “no,” with 1 percent undecided.

Another survey by the Emerson College Polling Center had a nearly identical result, and another poll by CBS News put support for Prop 50 at 62%.

In the CBS poll, an overwhelming number of Prop 50 supporters said they were voting “yes” specifically to oppose the Trump Administration and national Republicans.

What would the new district lines be if California Prop 50 passes?

The new electoral map prunes out conservative-leaning districts in the north and far south of the state, leaving a three-district Republican stronghold in the southeast, along the Nevada border.

Whether the new map unfairly divides communities and demographics depends on whom you ask, with both sides arguing that theirs is the fairest.

A statement from the Vote NO on Prop 50 campaign claims the new map splinters “many Latino, Asian and Black communities who fought to stay unified in the same district,” but an analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California found that both maps are more or less the same when it comes to preserving minority power bases.

What have notable politicians said about Prop 50?

As previously mentioned, former Governor Schwarzenegger wants to terminate the measure, calling it a tragic step backwards for the independent redistricting movement his state helped pioneer.

Former President Barack Obama endorsed Prop 50 at a virtual event with Gavin Newsom.

“There is a broader principle at stake that has to do with whether or not our democracy can be manipulated by those who are already in power,” Obama said in a quote reported by the Washington Post.

Other supporters include Representatives Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff.

But seven of the 15 members of the CRC itself oppose Orop 50, according to local KCRA 3, including the Committee’s leader Neal Fornaciari.