Week 7 odds, picks, best bets

There has been a considerable vibes shift around the Giants this past week.

That tends to happen when you beat the reigning Super Bowl champions, who also lead the NFC East, in convincing fashion.

The Giants will take all that positive energy with them on the road to face another tough test against the Broncos at Mile High. The Broncos just survived a game against the Jets in London and are putting together an impressive season thus far.

Oddsmakers have the Broncos as solid 7-point favorites across the market, which is a half point lower than the opening number, and the total is set at 40.5 points.

Giants vs. Broncos odds, prediction

I hate throwing cold water on what the Giants did against the Eagles because it was wildly impressive. Including their win against the Eagles, the Giants have scored a touchdown on the opening drive in their past three games, something they struggled to do consistently before Jaxson Dart took over the reins of the offense.

That said, the Broncos look like the most complete defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed just four touchdowns all season and they rank second total yards allowed per game (254.2) and points allowed per game (15.8).

They also lead the league with 30 sacks, led by linebacker Nik Bonitto, who leads the NFL with eight sacks in six games. It’s not just that the Broncos get sacks, they hit opposing quarterbacks more than frequently than any team with a 13.8% QB Knockdown Percentage.

We just saw what this Broncos team did to Jets QB Justin Fields, dropping him nine times in London. The week before that, Jalen Hurts took six sacks against the Broncos defense.

The Giants may come in with confidence this week, but the Broncos have been flying around like a pack of wolves and I haven’t even mentioned their shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II. The Giants’ two best wide receivers — Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton — are both out this week.

Dart leaned heavily on Wan’Dale Robinson and Lil’Jordon Humphrey in the passing game against the Eagles, but those two will have a tough matchup against a pass defense that leads the NFL in opposing QB completion percentage (57.7%) and net yards gained per attempt.

---

Betting on the NFL?

---

I don’t think anyone would fault a rookie quarterback for not being able to handle the pressure this team will bring. Not to mention this game is on the road in Denver, one of the toughest places to play because of the altitude. That makes me even more skeptical that Big Blue’s offense will have the same success it did last week.

The total has been steady at 40.5 and while I think this could be a low-scoring game, I’m most confident that the points will be tougher to come by for the Giants.

I’ll bet their team total under 16.5 points.

The Pick: Giants Under 16.5 points (-113, BetRivers)

---

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.