US-Iran tensions slow tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz

A growing number of cargo ships are said to be steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital artery for global oil and gas shipments, as tensions spike in the Middle East following US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The world’s largest shipping trade group, Bimco, says several operators have begun halting transits through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints, which links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.

While ship traffic had remained relatively stable in recent weeks, the mood shifted rapidly after Saturday’s US strikes on key Iranian enrichment facilities.

“Before the US attack, the impact on shipping patterns was limited,” Jakob Larsen, Bimco’s head of maritime security, told CNBC.

“Now, after the US attack, we have indications that the number of ships passing is reducing.”

Larsen warned that if Iran begins retaliating by targeting vessels, “it will most likely further reduce the number of ships transiting through the [Strait of Hormuz].”

About 20% of worldwide oil and petroleum product consumption through 2024 and early 2025 was shipped through the strait, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

It’s also the primary export route for Qatari liquified natural gas, with around a fifth of all global LNG supply passing through last year, the agency said.

Oil futures slid on Monday as traders appeared to downplay the risk of a major disruption to Middle East crude supplies, despite the US launching direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 84 cents, or 1.14%, to $73 per barrel by 10:30 a.m. ET. Brent crude, the global benchmark, slipped 81 cents, or 1.05%, to $76.20.

Prices initially surged overnight, with Brent topping $81 for the first time in weeks and WTI reaching its highest level since January. But momentum reversed after President Trump posted a message demanding that “everyone” keep oil prices lower.

It was unclear who he was targeting, though the remark was widely interpreted as a nudge to US producers to ramp up output.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could surge to $110 per barrel if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted — such as a 50% cut for one month followed by a sustained 10% reduction.

The Wall Street giant forecasts Brent crude to average $95 in Q4 2025 under this scenario and cites a 52% probability that Iran will close the strait this year, based on Polymarket data.

Given that the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20 million barrels daily, any prolonged disruption would pose serious risks to global energy markets.

The US strikes targeting Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan marked a sharp escalation in Washington’s backing of Israel’s push to cripple Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Tehran swiftly condemned the attacks and vowed to protect its sovereignty.

In response, Iran’s parliament reportedly approved a resolution to close the strait, though any final decision rests with the country’s Supreme National Security Council.

Some tankers have been instructed to hold off entering the strait until tensions ease, according to Andy Critchlow of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“We have indications from shippers that they are putting tankers and vessels on standby,” Critchlow said Monday, adding that LNG suppliers in the region have asked buyers to delay movements to avoid having ships linger in the Gulf.

Japanese shipping giant Nippon Yusen introduced a temporary standby policy for vessels heading toward the strait, limiting their time in the Gulf when schedules allow, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported.

Although the company hasn’t stopped navigation through the region, it’s clearly proceeding with caution.

Another major Japanese operator, Mitsui OSK Lines, has similarly asked its fleet to minimize time spent in the Gulf following the US airstrikes, according to Reuters.

German container shipper Hapag-Lloyd said its vessels continue to transit the strait but warned the situation remains “unpredictable” and could shift rapidly. A company spokesperson told CNBC that emergency protocols are in place if the conflict worsens.

Shipping analysts said that container operations in the Persian Gulf and upper Indian Ocean have not been significantly affected as of Monday morning. But risk assessments are now being conducted continuously.

“All companies access the risk individually — but the current situation requires them all to do so several times a day,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight platform Xeneta, told CNBC.

“Staying in close dialogue with national intelligence agencies and their own captains onboard the ships.”

Sand added that insurance premiums for ships in the region have “probably” been raised again in light of Iran’s threats.

US officials have called on China — Tehran’s biggest oil customer — to use its influence to dissuade Iran from blocking the strait.

The potential closure would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, pushing up energy prices, delaying shipments and straining diplomatic ties across the region.