UFC 323 predictions: Picks, best bets for main card and prelims

The final PPV in the promotion’s history, UFC 323.

Before the move to CBS and Paramount+, the UFC gives ESPN one last bite of the PPV apple with a 14-fight card live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Expect plenty of fireworks for this weekend’s card, which features two title fights at 125 and 135 pounds.

The entire card begins at 6 p.m. ET, and an even split, seven of the 14 fights are expected to end inside the distance.

UFC 323 predictions

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

A rematch of a fight that happened two years ago, Petr Yan comes in as a massive underdog in this fight against the incoming champion, Merab Dvalishvili, who is a massive -500 favorite.

Believe it or not, Yan was actually the -250 favorite just two years ago when he lost to Dvalishvili

So what has changed?

Yan fights on thin margins when standing up, and when he doesn’t have a grappling advantage, things seem to go south for him rather quickly.

Yan is also pretty undersized for the 135lb. division, making a grappling disadvantage even more concerning.

The first time these two fought, it was non-competitive primarily as Dvalishvili dominated the grappling.

Dvalishvili was rocking Yan multiple times in their fights, and he’s gotten dramatically better at striking since then.

Yan is a notorious slow starter, liking to download the data before attempting to win rounds three, four, and five.

If you want to bet on Yan, you’re certainly not betting on him prior to round one; you should live bet it during round two or even after.

I don’t like the matchup for Yan here. In order to beat Dvalishvili, there needs to be some form of power coming at the champion in order to back him off the takedowns.

He landed 11 takedowns the last time these two fought, and there were plenty of striking exchanges that Dvalishvili won, too.

And still, Dvalishvili will retain the title.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja is approaching all-time greatness status in the flyweight division, winning eight straight and defending the title five times.

He faces Joshua Van, a tough contender who has rocketed up the rankings with four wins in the past 12 months.

Van, 24, is looking for his fifth win in the UFC and just defeated the No. 1 contender.

If you’re looking to bet on Van, who is a +205 underdog in this fight, you need to believe that Van can survive on the ground with Pantoja, who is an extremely technically sound grappler.

Van’s output, volume, and confidence is sky high right now. But he’s also super young; he’s only fought 17 times professionally, compared to 35 times for Pantoja.

This could be a vet lesson spot if Pantoja’s chin can hold up.

That, of course, is a big question mark.

The +205 odds on Van are enticing here; Pantoja is 35, which is usually around where things begin to fall off for fighters, especially at lower weight classes.

At some point, we should fade Pantoja. My official pick will be “fight does not go to decision,” but I lean Van at these odds.

THE PLAY: Fight does not go to decision (-145, DraftKings)

UFC 323 full card picks

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira: Taira by decision (+155, FanDuel)

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott: Under 2.5 rounds (+210, Bally Bet)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov: Bogdan Guskov ML (+110, Caesars Sportsbook)

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres: Dawson over 2.5 takedowns (-116, Underdog)

Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan: Duncan ML (-155, Caesars)

Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva: Pass, Barber has had too many health issues to wager on.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam: Pass

Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira: Brunno Ferreira ML (-105, BetRivers)

Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner: Turner by submission (+430, FanDuel)

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan: Aslan ML (+170, Caesars)

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli: Abdul-Malik wins in round one (-105, BetRivers)

Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos: Santos ML -250 for parlays

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