Trump forecasts ’50-50 chance’ for EU trade deal, lower chance with Canada — and floats ‘rebate’ for some Americans

WASHINGTON — President Trump told reporters Friday that the US has a “50-50 chance” of reaching a trade deal with the European Union ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, but sounded less optimistic about coming to an agreement with Canada — before floating giving some Americans a “rebate” from the billions in tariff revenue taken in so far.

“We’re thinking about a rebate because we have so much money coming in from tariffs, a little rebate for people of a certain income level,” Trump said as he left the White House on his way to Scotland for a five-day visit.

After initially announcing a sweeping suite of reciprocal tariffs April 2, the president has repeatedly postponed levies on hundreds of nations to allow extra time for his administration to reach economic agreements.

The 27-nation EU is America’s single largest trading partner, with the exchange of goods and services making up 4.9% of US GDP last year, and markets on both sides of the Atlantic have closely watched the progress of negotiations.

“The EU, I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU, and it’ll be a deal where they have to buy down their power, because they’re right now at 30%,” Trump said.

Multiple outlets have reported that the EU plans to immediately hit American goods with a 30% levy if Aug. 1 comes and goes without a deal.

The president has been focused on expanding American exports to Europe and lowering the US trade deficit, as America imported about $606 billion worth of continental goods in 2024, while exporting only about $370 billion of US products.

“We haven’t had a lot of luck with Canada,” Trump went on. “I think Canada may be just one where they pay tariffs.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mike Carney said this week that he “would not accept a bad deal” with the US after months of stop-start talks.

“Our objective is not to reach a deal whatever it costs,” Carney said in Ontario on Wednesday. “We are pursuing a deal that will be in the best interest of Canadians.”

Trump has promised a 35% tariff on Canadian goods if not deal is reached before Aug. 1. Ottawa exports about three-quarters of its goods to the US, including cars, auto parts and oil.

Despite delaying “reciprocal tariffs,” Trump did impose blanket 10% rates while negotiations took place.

Since the April 2 rollout, the US Treasury has collected $64 billion in customs duties, or roughly $70 million a day through June 30. Meanwhile, inflation has largely remained steady despite predictions of price spikes by economists.

“The same ‘experts’ that were loudly spewing doomsday predictions are now quietly looking at their portfolios and planning their early retirement or vacation home purchases,” said Arthur Schwartz, a Republican operative with close ties to the administration.

The administration has also touted framework agreements with the UK, Japan, the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as a preliminary deal with China.

“Trump has clearly forged strong relationships with world leaders, including the president of Indonesia, to get incredible deals for Americans and our allies,” a person close to the White House told The Post of the talks. “World leaders like dealing with an executive who wants to get things done like Trump.”

Trump has threatened upwards of a 50% tariff on Brazil, a 30% tariff on Mexico and a 25% tariff on South Korea — all among America’s top individual trading partners.

“The president is leaving all options on the table and believes he has the upper hand in the tariff battle,” one source close to the White House told The Post.

“Fundamentally, he believes in the power and effectiveness of tariffs. They’re not going away.”

Additional reporting by Steven Nelson