Three picks, best bets for Saturday’s slate

One of the great things about college football is that it produces all sorts of different characters. You get the Tim Tebows, the Johnny Manziels, and the Baker Mayfields, but you also get the Micah Alejados.

A freshman who stands 5-foot-10 and weighs 180 pounds with his gear on, Alejado is the type of quarterback you picture when you close your eyes and think of the prototypical gunslinger for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.

He is the goods, too.

The Honolulu-born, Vegas-raised quarterback is a semifinalist for the Shaun Alexander Award given to the country’s best freshman, and he’s the main reason why Hawaii is going to a bowl game for the first time since 2020.

But they could do more than just go bowling.

Hawaii welcomes Mountain West-leading San Diego State to the Island on Saturday night in a game that could have huge ramifications across the College Football landscape. The Aztecs are a contender for the Group of 5’s bid into the tournament should they win the conference, but they’d be careful not to relax too hard on this trip to paradise.

Alejado and the Rainbow Warriors are one of the very few teams in the Group of 5 that can challenge San Diego State’s terrific pass defense.

Weird things happen on the Island. And I expect this game to be razor tight with Hawaii providing good value on the spread and moneyline.

The Pick: Hawaii +6.5 (DraftKings)

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+9.5) over Georgia

Shame on us for going against pesky Mississippi State last Saturday.

The Bulldogs’ 5-4 overall record and 1-4 mark in the SEC may not jump off this page at you, but it deserves plenty of respect considering Mississippi State went 2-10 in 2024, including 0-for-8 in conference play.

And it’s fair to suggest that the Bulldogs deserve better than what they’ve got this season. Three of Mississippi State’s four losses have been absolute heartbreakers. They lost to Tennessee and Texas in overtime, and fell by two points to Florida in the Swamp.

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Some tough breaks are all that separate the Bulldogs from an 8-1 (4-1) ledger.

The Bulldogs have proven to be masters at punching up and putting a scare into better teams, hence their 8-1 record against the spread, and I like them to do just that to Georgia in a lookahead spot for Kirby Smart’s squad.

PURDUE (+29.5) over Ohio State 

The Buckeyes can play their B-team and still make the College Football Playoff, but this is too many points for a sleepy road game on Saturday afternoon.

Purdue isn’t going anywhere, but the Boilermakers have played better than their 2-7 record. Had close losses to Michigan, Rutgers, and Minnesota gone the other way, this number would be slashed considerably. Don’t forget, they also put up 30 points on Notre Dame.

It shouldn’t take too many points to get us to the window here, as it’s likely that Ohio State takes its foot off the pedal after building up a big lead. Purdue is in a good spot to become the first team to cover the spread against the defending champs.

LAST WEEK: 1-2. Florida (W), Cal (L), Arkansas (L).

SEASON: 20-10

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.