Three first round long shot bets at FedEx Cup Playoffs

The 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway this Thursday at the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis.

The St. Jude features a field of 70 players, and no cut, with the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings qualifying for next week’s BMW Championship, which is the second leg of the playoffs.

From there, the top 30 players advance to the Tour Championship, which will be played as a 72-hole stroke-play event. The winner of that event, which will take place at East Lake, will be awarded the FedEx Cup.

As expected, Scottie Scheffler is a runaway favorite at TPC Southwind this week. Scheffler, who was last seen lifting the Claret Jug at the Open Championship three weeks ago, is +290 to win the St. Jude.

Not only is Scheffler the only player with single-digit odds at bet365, but he’s the only one inside 16/1.

Xander Schauffele is the second favorite (Rory McIlroy is skipping the tournament) at 17/1.

There’s another pronounced gap between Schaffele and a trio of players, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood, at 24/1.

In other words, this is setting up to be Scheffler versus the field.

2025 St. Jude Championship picks

Harry Hall (75/1, bet365)

It’s been almost a decade since a debutante won at TPC Southwind, but you can’t ignore Harry Hall’s form right now.

Perhaps the most underrated player on the Tour at the current moment, the Englishman has made 14 straight cuts and has a couple of top-10 finishes in that span.

Hall has been particularly hot of late, racking up seven top-20 finishes in his last nine outings and finishing no worse than T28 in that run.

This is a great price on a player whose form is pointing him towards a win sooner rather than later.

Brian Harman is coming off a T10 at the 2025 Open Championship. AP

Brian Harman (90/1, bet365)

For a little while there it looked like Brian Harman was going to win a second Open Championship in three years.

It wasn’t meant to be however, as Scottie Scheffler stormed through the weekend while Harman finished T10, but it was an encouraging sign for the Georgia native heading into the FedEx Cup Playoff.

Harman’s T10 at the Open was his second top-10 finish in his last three events, and he’ll blend that form with some strong course history at TPC Southwind.

Harman finished third here two years ago, his second top-10 finish at this course in seven starts.

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Justin Rose (100/1, FanDuel)

You’d think Justin Rose’s odds to win this tournament would indicate he’s in sluggish form, but the opposite is true.

The former World No. 1 and 2013 U.S. Open champion is still sprinkling in some missed cuts here and there, but his last two starts were a sixth-place finish at the Scottish Open and a T16 at the Open Championship.

In addition to his recent results, Rose also has played this course five times, with three finishes of T22 or better in his account.

Rose has turned himself into a boom or bust player, especially at these high-profile events, where he seemingly either misses the cut or hangs around the top of the leaderboard. Not a bad profile for someone at 100/1.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

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