Texans vs. Steelers prediction, picks: ‘Monday Night Football’ odds, best bet for NFL playoffs

The NFL Wild Card round comes to an epic close on ‘Monday Night Football’ as the streaking Houston Texans (12-5) take on Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7). 

DeMeco Ryans’ Texans squad has won nine straight games, featuring a top-tier defense whose hallmark is its takeaways and ability to create havoc. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was a Tyler Loop field goal away from not winning the AFC North, but miraculously escaped the Ravens in their season finale to clinch a playoff spot.

Rodgers is back in the playoff spotlight and will be making his Steelers postseason debut in front of a sea of waving terrible towels at Acrisure Stadium. 

Oddsmakers see a low-scoring contest, with the Texans favored by 3 points and an over/under of 39.5 points. 

Texans vs. Steelers: prediction, best bet

Pittsburgh’s challenge: Houston had 29 takeaways and 19 interceptions in the regular season, each ranking third-best in the NFL. 

Their secondary is led by top-rated cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who will likely draw a matchup against Steelers receiver D.K. Metcalf, who is returning following a two-game suspension. 

Entering this contest, Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, Kamari Lassiter, and Calen Bullock each have four interceptions to their name. This, combined with a forceful pass rush headlined by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, is precisely why the Texans have not lost a game since Week 9. 

Houston’s defense on paper strikes plenty of comparisons to the Seattle Seahawks “Legion of Boom,” a smash-mouth, physical, and disruptive brand.

If there was any signal-caller worthy of taking down this prolific bunch, it would be No. 8 in black and yellow. 

Rodgers’ short passing and screen game with running back Kenneth Gainwell will be vital, as Gainwell led the Steelers in receptions with 75 on the season. He saw a steady increase in targets with Metcalf sidelined in Weeks 17 and 18.

Pittsburgh will need him and Jaylen Warren to churn out first downs with their legs opposite a Texans defense that ranks 2nd in DVOA against the rush. 

While the return of Metcalf helps, the Steelers are going to need someone other than him or Gainwell to make splash plays. It’s been a toss-up between tight ends Pat Friermuth and Jonnu Smith, receivers Calvin Austin and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as to who will be another set of steady hands for Rodgers. 

In addition, T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and the Steelers’ pass rush will need a signature performance as well. Ravens receiver Zay Flowers was lost in coverage multiple times in Week 18, and, on average, the Steelers give up 244.9 yards through the air to the opposition. 

If C.J. Stroud has time in the pocket, he can take advantage and find big-play receiver Nico Collins. Collins eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for a third straight season, while rookie Jayden Higgins matched him with a team-high six touchdowns. 

Dalton Schultz could be an X factor, as the Steelers also have a vulnerability against tight ends, surrendering 11 touchdowns to the position.  

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Betting on the NFL?

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There are several angles to look at this game.

One might think Mike Tomlin’s exceptional 22-4 record on ‘MNF’ is a reason for the Steelers’ moneyline, while the Texans’ otherworldly defense will be extra imposing for an aging Rodgers.

I am aiming for the latter, as Father Time escapes no man.

The Steelers’ late season resurgence to clinch the playoffs was impressive, but those wins came against three non-playoff teams (Ravens twice, Dolphins, Lions), not to mention an ugly loss to the Browns sandwiched in between. 

Take the Texans to cover the three points.

Houston’s defense will set up Stroud and precision kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn in short-field situations with their takeaways to get more points on the board. 

The Play: Texans -3 (-102, DraftKings)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.