‘Sunday Night Football’ picks, odds, best bets

What’s the NFL season anymore without Mike Tomlin scrapping the Steelers’ way to a winning record through discipline and defensive identity?

The Steelers proved their keep last week, topping the NFL’s hottest team in the Colts, 27-20. They snapped a two-game losing streak and cling to a two-game lead in the AFC North heading into another test against the resurgent Chargers on “Sunday Night Football.”

You can’t credit Tomlin enough as he keeps making lemonade with an anemic offense with a passing game built upon quick throws.

If there’s someone who’s been a beneficiary to the dump-offs, it’s Jaylen Warren out of the backfield. Warren is snatching three catches per game for a career-high of 9.1 yards.

There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that the Steelers are dead last in rushing. Warren is still getting premium volume, though — he’s on pace for a career-high 226 carries through seven games. 

This finally paid dividends for the scat back against Indianapolis, driving the ball into the endzone twice for his first rushing scores of the season. Both of those carries came inside the red zone, a place where the Chargers have allowed 1.5 touchdowns per game. 

For as inept as Pittsburgh’s offense is, it is the seventh-most efficient in the red zone, converting 68 percent of its trips there. Tomlin relies on his backfield in short-yardage situations near the goal line, and while Rodgers commands attention, Warren is the likely option against a Chargers defense that has allowed the 27th-most rushing scores.

It’s also a unit that has coughed up eight touchdowns to opposing running backs. Although none of those were through the air, Warren’s dual-threat profile gives his scoring odds some upside: the Chargers give up 5.2 ypc to running backs.

The Chargers’ banged-up offensive line is allowing opposing teams the highest pressure rate in football. Expect T.J. Watt to exploit this and force turnovers, giving the offense plenty of possessions where Warren will be key for clock management.

THE PLAY: Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown (+115, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.