Russian missiles outsmarting Ukrainian defense systems

Russia appears to have altered its missiles to better evade Ukrainian defense systems — with interception rates plummeting since August in what experts fear may be a “game changer for Russia,” according to reports.

Ukrainian defense systems stopped just 6% of Russian ballistic missiles in September, an alarming decline from the 37% interception rate logged just a month earlier.

That decline comes as Russia’s ballistic missiles have been behaving differently at the end of their flight paths, with Ukrainian officials reporting the projectiles have begun making last-minute maneuvers apparently intended to “confuse and avoid” interception systems, the Financial Times reported.

Those changes appear to be present only in ballistic missiles — which are launched under rocket power and then follow unpowered trajectories to their targets — instead of the cruise missiles which are flown under jet power throughout their trajectory.

And while Russia’s missile changes appear to have become dangerous effective only in recent weeks, a report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency suggests they have been in development since at least April.

“[Ukraine] struggled to consistently use Patriot air defense systems to protect against Moscow’s ballistic missiles because of recent Russian tactical improvements, including enhancements that enable their missiles to change trajectory and perform maneuvers rather than flying in a traditional ballistic trajectory,” the report read.

It’s likely the missile changes Russia made were software-based modifications to guidance systems rather than alterations of the projectile’s physical engineering, according to experts.

“A steeper terminal trajectory, that’s something you can program into the missile,” University of Oslo missile researcher Fabian Hoffman told the Financial Times.

He added that this was a part of a long-standing pattern of Russia and Ukraine “playing an adaptability game” to outfox the other’s weapons systems since the war began four years ago.

Ukraine has been relying heavily on American-made and -provided Patriot interceptor rockets and launchers for defense against Russian missiles. The systems are made by Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin, which routinely receive battlefield data to upgrade their effectiveness.

But Ukrainian officials have cautioned Russia has been frequently able to remain a step ahead of updates.

That lag in response has been devastating for Ukraine, with the recent weeks of barrage hits damaging critical infrastructure like power grids as the country prepares to batten down for a cold winter.

“Russia is once again trying to hit Ukraine with a blackout this year,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said.

“Unfortunately, this has already become a traditional Russian tactic.”