Rams-Seahawks grudge match could be an all-time classic

Looking back, we should have known the two regular-season thrillers served up by the Rams and Seahawks were merely the appetizer to their showdown on Sunday in the NFC Championship game.

Both games left everyone wanting more, and more is exactly what we’ll get when they square off one more time. This time, with a trip to Super Bowl LX hanging in the balance.

The longtime NFC West rivals split the season series, with the Rams surviving the first meeting, 21-19, when Jason Myers’ 61-yard field goal sailed wide at the buzzer. 

The Seahawks won the rematch, 38-37, on the first overtime walk-off 2-point conversion in league history.

The lessons each club learned will be applied to Sunday’s conference championship game, although both teams insist the first two games were so unique to themselves that there is little reason to doubt Sunday won’t take on an entirely different identity as well. 

That said, both teams took notes from the regular-season series, and so did we.

They are in Sam Darnold’s head

When it comes to the Seahawks quarterback, it’s impossible not to worry that the other shoe is perpetually about to drop. We simply can’t unsee all of Darnold’s meltdowns and implosions throughout the years. Or how he fumbled away opportunities with the Jets and Panthers in such convincing fashion, he seemed destined to go down as one of the biggest busts in league history.

To his credit, Darnold has put some distance between himself and those frightful years in New York and Charlotte. Thanks to his play in Minnesota and Seattle the last two years, he has completely reinvented himself.

That is, when he’s facing any team besides the Rams. 

Danold can’t escape his ghosts when he takes the field against them. And the Rams know it.

Over the last two seasons, Chris Shula’s defense has picked off seven Darnold passes, sacked him 16 times, and won three of the four matchups against him. 

His cumulative quarterback rating is 34.3 in those games. Against all the other teams that he’s faced multiple times in that same time frame, his QBR is 58.4.

Darnold can scoff it off all he wants. But the numbers are the numbers. And they will be lurking over his shoulder all day Sunday.

Get pressure, get wins

The Rams are fairly layered in their scheme against Darnold, but on one very particular level, they keep it extraordinarily simple.

When they apply pass rush pressure, they turn him into a turnover machine.

In the first regular-season meeting between the two clubs, the Rams picked Darnold off four times. Every one of them came when the Rams collapsed the walls around him. They didn’t even need to sack him – in fact, they never got him to the ground one time. They just turned up the heat on him. Every time they did, he panicked into multiple off-balance throws that floated wide, high, or low off his target or, worse, into the arms of Rams defenders.

The Rams feel good about their chances if their pass rush can replicate that on Sunday

Play clean football, and they should be fine

The Rams were well on their way to sweeping the season series against the Seahawks when the two teams met in December, grabbing a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead and picking Darnold off twice more.

With just over eight minutes left to play, they were in total control of the game, the NFC West, and the top seed in the conference playoffs.

Only to burn it all to the ground thanks to a series of self-inflicted wounds.

The learning lesson wasn’t just painful; it cost them everything they worked for, including home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

They got burned on special teams when Rashid Shaheed ran through gaping holes in their punt coverage for a 58-yard touchdown. 

They surrendered two 2-point conversions in the fourth quarter to help cough up the 16-point lead, and yet another in overtime.

On one of the two-point conversions, they foolishly assumed the play was dead when Darnold’s pass got deflected to the ground. That allowed Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet to nonchalantly scoop the ball up in the end zone. 

He was eventually awarded the two points when the officials deemed it was a backwards pass.

Nearly as bad were the three straight three-and-outs in the fourth quarter to keep giving the ball back to the Seahawks. One first down in any of those series means the Rams are likely playing Sunday’s game at SoFi Stadium rather than Lumen Field.

It was an all-time great self-own. And a costly one at that.

The saving grace: The Rams believe they are the better team. Provided they play a clean game, of course.

They can play with the Rams

Despite Darnold’s obvious struggles against the Rams, the Seahawks didn’t just split the two regular-season games; they were a missed field goal away from sweeping the series.

You’re crazy if you don’t think that gives them a ton of confidence. 

Even more so considering the Seahawks dominated the Rams over the final eight minutes of the regular-season rematch, converted three critical two-point conversions, and were able to get Darnold calmed down enough to finally play efficient football.

Their lasting memory of the Rams was chasing them down in the fourth quarter, converting every big play they faced, and snatching control of the division and conference from them.

That counts for a lot.

The Seahawks can run against the Rams

In the two regular-season meetings, the Seahawks rolled the Rams for 306 rushing yards while busting runs of 55, 31, and 25 yards.

There were times when Seattle felt like the tougher, more physical team, able to control the line of scrimmage and punish the Rams with physical runs.

They eclipsed 100 yards in both games, proving this wasn’t just a one-time thing. They know theft can beat the Rams up front, and have a physical back like Kenneth Walker capable of abusing tacklers.

A similar type of ground game on Sunday means the Seahawks are controlling the line of scrimmage again. That will affect everything from time of possession, confidence, and creating a big-time shoulder that Darnold can lean on throughout the game.

Keeping the Rams offense under wraps

The Rams are the most potent offense in the NFL and averaged 29 points against a Seahawks defense that gave up a league-fewest 17.2 points per game.

But it gets a little sketchy beyond just the points, which got a big boost by the 37 points they scored in the overtime game in December. Otherwise,  it was just 21 points in the first meeting, a number the Seahawks would gladly take in the rubber game Sunday.

Seattle went to work against the Rams in some key areas, limiting them to four touchdowns on 10 trips to the red zone and halting them on 21 of their 31 third-down attempts.

Winning the red zone and on third downs goes a long way toward winning football games, let alone playoff games inside your own building.

The Seahawks have built an edge in those departments. It could serve them well Sunday.