Picks against the spread for every game

Clues for which team will win an NFL game could come from a variety of places.

Sometimes it’s the injury report, where a team might have a cluster of problems at one position. Other times, there are motivational factors such as revenge, when a coach or player is going against a former team that he believes did him wrong.

A third is the schedule, and that’s where we’re going for our selection on Giants-Broncos on Sunday in Denver.

The Giants last played a week ago Thursday, when they doubled up the Eagles 34-17 behind a “We’re here!” performance by two rookies, QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo. The three extra days not only gave Giants players a chance to rest and heal, they also added a buffer before the next game, which could help prevent a letdown.

That’s important because the team’s performance in the first six weeks was bad, decent, bad, good, terrible, and then great. Some variant of bad is due if that pattern keeps up.

On the other side of the spectrum are the Broncos, who played against the Jets last week in London. Teams that play overseas have the option of taking their bye the following week, but Denver chose to be off in Week 12 and will be the first team in the Mountain or Pacific time zones to try this kind of turnaround.

Another reason to like the Giants is that the spread (seven) is high while the total is low (40). In a game in which points could be at a premium, a touchdown underdog is normally the preference.

Also, kudos to Dart and Brian Daboll for not giving up on the passing game after Malik Nabers’ season-ending injury. Wan’Dale Robinson may now be WR1, and that’s not great, but his six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown vs. the Eagles were fine. As were Lil’Jordan Humphrey’s four receptions for 55 yards.

The Broncos offense had big problems against the Jets, amassing just 246 yards, 12 first downs, and 13 points against a defense that was near the bottom of the NFL.

The pick: Giants +7.

Panthers (-1) over JETS

The Jets’ London odyssey is similar to Denver’s, albeit 1,600 miles shorter. But the Jets bring home more serious questions from across the pond.

Such as, can Aaron Glenn coach? Is Justin Fields afraid to throw a pass? Or what will an offense that just was held to minus-10 passing yards (with nine sacks) do now that No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson is out? The Jets already didn’t have a legitimate WR2.

I was considering a contra-type selection in hopes that proud Jets leaders such as Quinnen Williams, Breece Hall, and Sauce Gardner would say “enough is enough” and lead the team to its first “W.”

But even though the 3-3 Panthers are far from a top team and are 0-3 on the road, Rico Dowdle has rushed for 389 yards in the past two games, and rookie Tetairoa McMillan is quickly becoming a nightmare at wide receiver. Thinking over the course of three hours, there will be more to discourage the Jets than spur them to victory.

Jaguars (+3) over Rams (in London)

Jaguars play in England every season and are 7-6 straight-up since 2013. Looking at a more defensive game between two teams that are in the top seven in points per game allowed. With the potential absence of Rams WR Puka Nacua (ankle), the full field goal spread could play a part in this outcome.

CHIEFS (-12) over Raiders

The Chiefs are getting WR Rashee Rice back from a six-game suspension for his role in a horrific 2024 multiple-car crash. He joins Xavier Worthy in potentially the most explosive offense Patrick Mahomes has ever had (particularly if the refs are going to call zero penalties against them). Geno Smith kept it together last week, but a few mistakes by him at Arrowhead would widen this gap.

BEARS (-5) over Saints

The Bears have won three in a row and are coming off back-to-back road wins by the identical score of 25-24. I expect them to get better as the season goes along for rookie coach Ben Johnson. Spencer Rattler has been OK for the Saints, but midweek injury concerns for Alvin Kamara (ankle) and Chris Olave (hip) make them a no-play.

Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS

The Dolphins are an unsightly 1-5, but they have been scoring a lot of points — at least 21 in each of their past five games and an average of 25.5 in that span. The Browns have averaged 13 ppg in Dillon Gabriel’s two starts, against the Vikings in London and at Pittsburgh. Hard to justify giving points with him at quarterback.

Patriots (-7) over TITANS

The Brian Callahan era ended with a 4-20-1 ATS record. Interim coach Mike McCoy walks into a tough spot opposite Mike Vrabel, who has instantly revitalized the Patriots. Doubling up on Patriots as Lock of the Week as the team steps up for Vrabel.

Eagles (-2) over VIKINGS

The Vikings QB slot is in flux with J.J. McCarthy (ankle) possibly able to replace Carson Wentz (shoulder). I’m focusing more on the Eagles, whose offense has seemed broken most of the season. Figuring with 10 days to stew about an embarrassing loss to the Giants, we’ll get the best version of the Eagles this week.

Colts (+1.5) over CHARGERS

It’s a long trip for the Colts, but an even longer one for the Chargers, who returned from Miami. L.A. has given up 111 rushing yards to Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 128 to De’Von Achane the past two weeks. Looking for Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones to chew up an injury-depleted foe.

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COWBOYS (+2) over Commanders

Bit of a tough turnaround for the Commanders, who travel off a Monday night home loss to the Bears. At midweek, there was a chance the Cowboys could get back a cavalry of returning players — including WRs CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin, and G Tyler Booker. That would certainly change the dynamic for Dak Prescott.

CARDINALS (+6.5) over Packers

Though the Cardinals are on a four-game losing streak, the margins were one, three, one, and four points, all good enough to cover this spread. A cluster of offensive injuries makes this a light endorsement of Arizona. Keep an eye on Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. news. The Packers are 0-1-1 on the road and look a little stale to lay this number.

Falcons (+2) over 49ERS

The Falcons travel cross-country after a marquee Monday night win over the Bills. Usually, a double-red flag, triple for those who have been burned by falling in love with the Falcons in the past. But the 49ers also had a long haul from Tampa a day earlier and are decimated on defense, with Fred Warner joining Nick Bosa on IR. Ride the Bijan Robinson express.

Monday

Buccaneers (+5.5) over LIONS

Baker Mayfield should already have clinched the MVP for winning games without his top three receivers, starting running back, and three-fifths of his offensive line. He still has Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Rachaad White, and two guys named Johnson, in addition to a 5.5-point head start. Let’s go!

Betting on the NFL?

Texans (+3) over SEAHAWKS

The Texans’ past two games saw a combined 70-10 demolition of the Titans and Ravens, and they had a bye week to mitigate the western travel. Houston also ranks No. 1 by a wide margin with just 12.2 ppg allowed. Sam Darnold has been fine, but this defense could rattle him.

BEST BETS: Patriots, Panthers, Giants.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Patriots (Locks 2-4 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 9-6 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Steelers.

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