Picks against the spread for every game

OK, so the Jets are 0-4 and everyone’s eager to pile on.

The major diss is about how Aaron Glenn came in hell-bent on cleaning up the undisciplined penalties, costly turnovers and boneheaded plays, and instead they are losing games because of those very things.

You can read and listen all about that in any Jets story or podcast or all day long on sports talk radio. That criticism isn’t wrong … I’m just a little tired of it.

So in this space, let’s just stay focused on the task at hand, and that’s to choose whether to back the Jets as 2.5-point home underdogs against the Cowboys on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

The Cowboys come in at 1-2-1. They beat the Giants 40-37 on a mini-miracle ending despite giving up 450 yards passing to the since-benched Russell Wilson. Last week, they were down 13-0 to the Packers before scoring two points on a blocked PAT. That helped to make it a game, which ended up 40-40 after a full overtime.

Dallas ranks No. 1 in the NFL in offensive yards per game and has ample weaponry in the form of Dak Prescott (1,119 yards passing, six touchdowns), Javonte Williams (312 rushing yards, four touchdowns) and George Pickens (300 yards receiving, four touchdowns). Yes, the Cowboys will be without superstar CeeDee Lamb, but it’s worth remembering that the Jets defense couldn’t stop the Dolphins even after Tyreek Hill got injured.

The Cowboys also have a huge edge in special teams. Brandon Aubrey possibly has the longest range of any kicker in NFL history. He might even try one from the Rutt’s Hut parking lot. And KaVontae Turpin is one of the league’s most dangerous kick and punt returners.

Meanwhile, the Jets have been a disaster in the return game with two soul-crushing fumbles and an inexplicable fair catch of a punt at the 3-yard line. And we could see a MetLife takeover by Cowboys fans, a phenomenon that often spurs road teams. 

The good news if you’re looking to back the Jets is that Dallas has a horrendous defense. It ranks last in yards per game allowed and 31st in points per game allowed. 

This could be another game in which Justin Fields, who has been as good as anyone could have hoped, and Garrett Wilson put up some numbers and points on the board.

But this is a matchup in which the Jets will need extra possessions to try to keep up or even surpass Prescott and Co. Problem is, their defense has not created a single turnover in four games.

So even with the urgency of 0-4, a soft opposing defense and a few points on the spread, I can’t get to a Jets bet this week.

The pick: Cowboys -2.5. 

New York Giants (+2) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

This spread moved about four points toward the Saints even after the upset Giants victory over the Chargers last week. 

Maybe bettors are giving New Orleans credit for an underdog cover at Buffalo. Or else they’re looking at the meager passing stats from Jaxson Dart in his debut (111 yards) or shading him because his first road start will be in an inhospitable location. They could be trying to calculate the point-spread value of Malik Nabers’ absence.

Yes, it should be a little tougher for Dart now that the defense has some film to watch on him in a real game. However, it didn’t appear Brian Daboll exposed too much last week. Dart was able to give the Giants an early lead with his legs, then didn’t screw up as the defense rose up to shut down Justin Herbert, one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

I’m not seeing too many valid reasons to back the 0-4 Saints as favorites here. And another thing to consider if you believe this will be a close game: With the new overtime rules which seem to make ties more likely, it would be good to have the underdog and be able to cover in a tie game.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over Minnesota Vikings (in London)

Myles Garrett has four of the Browns’ 11 sacks and will be coming after Carson Wentz, who was roughed up by the Steelers in Dublin. The Browns are also ranked No. 1 in total yards allowed. Offensively, maybe Dillon Gabriel can give them a lift over what Joe Flacco was providing. 

Las Vegas Raiders (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

We’d probably be getting a few more points if Adonai Mitchell hadn’t fumbled at the goal line and the Colts had beaten the Rams to stay undefeated. The Raiders got Ashton Jeanty untracked last week with 138 yards and three total touchdowns, but lost to the Bears thanks to a blocked kick and three Geno Smith turnovers. If Smith is a little better here, the Raiders can cover. 

Houston Texans (-2) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

Another line that flipped, and big-time, with Lamar Jackson and almost every Ravens defensive star expected to miss this game. Cooper Rush seems like a poor scheme fit as a replacement for Jackson, and he’ll have to deal with a killer Texans pass rush. 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) over Denver Broncos

It feels as if the market is trying to poke holes in the Eagles’ 4-0 start and look for weaknesses that might not be there. The result is we get a very nice price on the Birds at home against a good-but-not-great opponent that had to travel almost across the country after the late Monday night game. 

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Betting on the NFL?

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CAROLINA PANTHERS (+1.5) over Miami Dolphins

Miami is another team that had to fly after a Monday nighter, though not as far as Denver did. The Dolphins held on against the Jets after Tyreek Hill’s devastating injury, but now Mike McDaniel will have to come up with some new schemes to replace him. The Panthers lost their three road games, but beat the Falcons 30-0 in their one home game. 

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7.5) over Tennessee Titans

This is a curiously low line considering the Titans are 3-18 ATS in their past 21 games and have lost by increasing margins of 8, 14, 19 and 26 points. Field days incoming for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs’ grisly injury report includes issues for Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving behind an already banged-up offensive line. Seattle’s also one of the toughest road venues, even for strong and healthy teams. As much as I’d love to take Mayfield with more than a field goal, this feels like a big ask.  

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+10.5) over Detroit Lions

The Bengals scored 10 and 3 points in Jake Browning’s first two starts, but those were tough road assignments at Minnesota and Denver. He still has healthy receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and will be back home against a Lions secondary that will be missing D.J. Reed. Let’s try the double digits.

Washington Commanders (+2.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Left tackle Joe Alt’s injury takes away more of the power the Chargers offense was built upon. Jayden Daniels will be missing starting wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. We’ll need a huge effort from the Commanders defense.

New England Patriots (+8) over BUFFALO BILLS

This line has dipped from 10 but still is pretty hefty. Interesting trends from VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum: Prime- time underdogs are 8-5 ATS this season (62 percent) and since 2020, prime-time ’dogs of 6.5 points and higher are 56-39 ATS (59 percent). Drake Maye and a strong Patriots defense give us a chance in this environment. 

Monday Night Football  

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Third prime-time game of the season for the Chiefs, but some rare exposure for the Jags, which should give them a little extra. Could be a slog with rain in the forecast, so the hook could be of value.

BEST BETS: Cardinals, Texans, Raiders. 

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Cardinals (Locks 1-3 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 13-3 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Rams.

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.