Picks against the spread for every game

The Giants offense reminds me of the old bit by legendary deadpan comedian Stephen Wright about an overnight visit to a grocery story:

When I got down there, there’s a guy outside, locking it up. He said, “Sorry, we’re closed.” I said, “What do you mean you’re closed? The sign says, ‘Open 24 hours.’ ” He said, “Not in a row.” 

The establishment run by Brian Daboll and Russell Wilson certainly was open for business Sunday at Dallas. The Giants rolled up 506 yards of total offense. Wilson threw for 450 yards and three touchdowns. Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson combined for 309 yards receiving and three scores. Rookie Cam Skattebo bulled for 45 yards and a touchdown.

Yes, the Giants lost, 40-37, as Brandon Aubrey kicked a 64-yard field goal to tie with zeroes on the clock, then buried a 46-yarder in overtime. There were four penalties on one player (James Hudson) on one drive. Wilson threw away any chance of a victory with an interception The Post’s back page aptly called the “Dark Side of the Moon Ball.”

But when the store was open, there was something there. Daboll’s and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka’s plays showed imagination and continuity, and were executed well. It looked somewhat like a modern NFL offense for a day. 

Now the question is whether this is sustainable. There have been other flashes in Daboll’s tenure, such as when they scored 38 against the Colts in Week 7 of 2022, then 31 at the Vikings in a road playoff victory. 

In 2023, the Giants scored 31 points in victories in Week 2 at Arizona and Week 11 at Washington. In the other nine games in the beginning of that season, they averaged 10 ppg and went 1-8. 

Sunday, the Chiefs come into MetLife Stadium with an 0-2 record. They’ve averaged just 19 ppg against the Chargers (in Brazil) and Eagles. Travis Kelce’s biggest plays have been a collision that injured WR Xavier Worthy and a tipped pass at the goal line that was intercepted.

The Chiefs have a reputation as a team that wins games but fails to cover the spread, but looking at the past two seasons, they are 7-4 ATS when favored by 3.5 to 6.5 points. Also, we haven’t really seen this team play with the urgency in the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era that it figures to bring to the Meadowlands on Sunday night. It’ll be interesting to see if Steve Spagnuolo can hang a “Closed” sign on the Giants’ offense.

The pick: Chiefs -6.5.  

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7) over New York Jets

The Bucs are 2-0, beating the Falcons 23-20 on a missed field goal and Texans 20-19 on the last play of the game. They’re on a short week after a brutally physical Monday nighter and could be missing three starting offensive linemen. It’s a chore to back the Jets after last week’s no-show vs. the Bills, which ended with a charitable 30-10 on the scoreboard and Justin Fields out with a concussion. 

Though the spread makes this a tricky call, and the Jets with Tyrod Taylor could be something or nothing, the one thing worth trusting is a good game by Baker Mayfield.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

OK, so Daniel Jones has been a revelation and has gotten us two ATS wins so far. The one last week against Denver came on a leverage-penalty gift that provided a do-over on the game-ending field goal. Now he has to go on the road for the first time. Titans are 1-1 ATS and had a legit chance to beat the Rams last week for much of the game. Looking for Cam Ward to get a little better each time out.

Green Bay Packers (-8) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Cleveland actually played a decent game in Baltimore and still lost 41-17. The Packers bring a punishing defense to the lake, and Jordan Love should be able to get them past this spread over the course of three hours.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Battle of backup QBs Carson Wentz and Jake Browning. The latter stepped in and led the Bengals past the Jaguars after Joe Burrow’s injury and has had some success starting games for the Bengals. This is the vagabond Wentz’s first game as a Viking … behind an offensive line with injury concerns. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Aaron Rodgers might have been able to figure out a way to beat the Seahawks if not for that awful blunder on the kickoff. Small spread and Christian Gonzalez’s potential return suggest this could go either way, but I’d embrace Rodgers a bit more off a loss than Drake Maye off a win.

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Rams return to the scene of their 28-22 playoff loss, where a potential upset died at the Eagles’ 22. L.A. is allowing just 14 ppg so far and has posted 100-plus-yard receiving games from Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Happy to take the points here and see how this turns out.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-3.5) over Las Vegas Raiders

Marcus Mariota replaces the injured Jayden Daniels for the Commanders. That would normally be enough to produce a Raiders pick here. However, the schedule makers had other ideas. Washington had three extra days off after a TNF game, while the Raiders have a long trip after a physical, extra-late Monday nighter. Pretty unfair.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina’s backdoor cover against the sleeping Cardinals aside, this is still among the worst teams in the league. And though the Falcons don’t have a lot of wins by margin the past few years, this combo of Michael Penix Jr-Bijan Robinson-Drake London, and an improved secondary has opened some eyes.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-2) over Houston Texans

Truth be told, I really wanted to take a Texans team that should be ornery at 0-2 against the Jags. Again, though, the schedule tilts the selection as Houston travels off a physical MNF game and has to deal with the 84-degree Duval heat.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3) over Denver Broncos

Denver failed to cover vs. the Titans and didn’t force a single punt by the Colts. Justin Herbert will be a handful, even with the Chargers in a tight turnaround after their late Monday night win.

New Orleans SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints

Though Spencer Rattler and the Saints were competitive in home losses to the Cardinals and 49ers, the atmosphere gets more challenging against Seattle’s tough defense in front of the 12th Man. Good battle that maybe gets away from the Saints late. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2.5) over Arizona Cardinals

This is one time where I’d prefer to let the injury report play out a little more, with Brock Purdy iffy to return for the 49ers and rookie CB Will Johnson questionable for the Cardinals. For now, the selection is based on the 49ers’ healthy defense and Levi’s Stadium fans getting up for the first home game.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) over CHICAGO BEARS

Dallas gave up 37 points to the Giants. The Bears have given up 73 points to the Vikings and Lions in the past five quarters. Unreal. The angle here is that the Cowboys know how to win and the Bears don’t, and Dallas’ huge kicking edge should be worth a handful of points.

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Monday

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5) over Detroit Lions

These teams last met in 2023 in Baltimore when both entered 5-1. Game ended up 38-6 Ravens. Figuring the Lions score more here, but again their defense will get steamrolled by Lamar Jackson, this time with Derrick Henry’s help.

BEST BETS: Falcons, Chargers, Cowboys.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Falcons (Locks 1-1 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 9-7 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Bills.