Packers vs. Bears prediction: NFL Wild Card Weekend picks, best bets
Third time’s a charm for these NFC North foes.
The Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers as 1.5-point underdogs according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
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It’s a semi-surprising betting line to have the Bears as legitimate underdogs at home to a team that they just beat, but the number hasn’t moved since opening.
The Packers are a completely different team from the one that barely defeated the Bears on Dec. 7, 28-21, after losing their best player, Micah Parsons, for the season.
Green Bay was a 6.5-point favorite when they dispatched the Bears in Green Bay during Week 14 and were 1.5-point favorites when they lost to them in Chicago.
Wouldn’t you know it, the line has not moved from that spot as the market doesn’t believe Chicago has improved since Week 16.
Or rather, the Packers haven’t dropped off, which is hard to wrap my head around.
The Packers are averaging 5.3 yards per play in their last three games on offense, the worst among all NFC playoff teams.
And for a team that prides itself on its defense, with coordinator Jeff Hafley a popular name on the head-coaching interview circuit, the Packers are not the same unit they once were.
Green Bay has allowed 5.9 yards per play since Parsons went down with a torn ACL, the eighth-worst figure in the NFL and second-worst among playoff teams.
This comes as the Packers were among the best units in the NFL all season, allowing just 5 yards per play, tied for the eighth-best mark.
So is this the Packers team we’ve all grown to enjoy backing this season? I’m not so sure.
With injuries to offensive lineman Zach Tom and safety Javon Bullard, Green Bay is in a dicey spot against a Bears team playing the best football of its season.
Chicago is far from the 1984 Bears, to be clear, but neither are the Packers, and Ben Johnson has the offense roaring.
Betting on the NFL?
The Bears are averaging 6.3 yards per play in the NFL in their last three games, second-best in the NFL.
Now is the time to target Chicago in a surprising underdog spot at home +1.5.
When targeting the player prop market here, we’re looking at attacking an overrated Packers defense that is leaky and beatable through the air.
This is where we snag rookie receiver Luther Burden to go over 37.5 receiving yards.
Burden is a player that you will be talking about for a long time, as he and Caleb Williams have shown off an increasingly strong connection in the passing game.
His last five games receiving totals come in at 46, 33, 67, 84, 138 and 35.
The 67-yard receiving game was against this same Packers team, in a loss, while he missed the next matchup with an injury.
The final game came against the Lions, which they didn’t necessarily take seriously until the fourth quarter.
I see Burden showing out on Saturday evening.
THE PLAY: Bears +1.5 (-105, FanDuel) | Burden over 37.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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