Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction: Sugar Bowl opt-outs, picks, best bets

The Sugar Bowl is the only rematch in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal, though let’s not mistake it for a rerun. 

When No. 3 Georgia foiled No. 6 Ole Miss 43-35 on Oct. 18, the Rebels controlled three quarters and forced the Bulldogs to adapt. Kirby Smart pulled the answers from a hat in the fourth quarter with three straight stops, which led to a 17-0 go-ahead run.

But this time around, I’m not sure the solution will need to come in the eleventh hour. 

Ole Miss vs. Georgia odds, prediction

Ole Miss deserves its fair share of respect. The Rebels handled a noisy coaching transition without missing a beat, eviscerating Tulane with the same offensive principles they established under Lane Kiffin: pace, efficiency, and quick-strike stress. 

Trinidad Chambliss is much to thank.

He protects the football responsibly while spreading it around to an array of targets. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. has leaned into quick dropbacks and run-pass options that mitigate pressure and maximize yards after catch. That formula worked for those first three quarters of the October meeting; Ole Miss scored on its first five possessions.

If there’s been any significant changes since then, it’s Georgia’s defense. It was a young and green unit early in the season, but over its last four games, the Bulldogs tightened up to allow 10 points or fewer to each of those opponents, including a presiding 28-7 win over Alabama in the SEC Championship.

The once-dormant pass rush has generated pressure from everywhere without even blitzing, which stymied both Alabama and Texas. 

Ole Miss’ sharp aerial attack is still going to move the ball; Georgia’s edge leans toward what happens after the catch and near the goal line.

The Bulldogs are one of college football’s most efficient in tackling — they even demonstrated that while struggling against the Rebels. Their run defense sets the standard in nearly every metric, from yards allowed per game to first down rushing. 

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The Rebels’ ground attack begins and ends with Kewan Lacy, who strung together over 1,300 yards and 21 touchdowns. Lacy is persevering through a shoulder injury, though even when he was at full health, he managed just 31 yards on 12 carries against Georgia.

The Bulldogs rank within the top 10 in both yards allowed before and after contact, so I can’t see how explosive rushing can aid Ole Miss here. 

The Bulldogs’ offense isn’t necessarily explosive, but they are still relentless. Georgia plays run-first, punishing football throughout the course of four quarters, which can pay its due opposite an Ole Miss run defense that surrenders 4.6 yards per attempt. And if they stack the box, Georgia forces defenses to defend against quarterback runs and the full width of the field. 

Now let’s apply that leverage to red-zone situations: Georgia has converted within the opponent’s 20 at a 91.7 percent clip. 

There should be stretches where Ole Miss looks dangerous, no doubt. In the end, Georgia’s material improvement since October should leave the Rebels with fewer answers in New Orleans.

THE PLAY: Georgia -6.5 (-110, Fanatics)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.