Odds, picks, best for SEC clash on Saturday


Saturday’s college football card features some slobberknockers, but don’t you dare overlook Tennessee’s trip to StarkVegas.

It’s been a long time since there’s been any excitement around the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and an upset over the 15th-ranked Vols will have the good people in Starkville believing that this season could be something special.

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Tennessee, meanwhile, is in a must-win spot after losing to Georgia last week. The defeat to the Bulldogs wasn’t unexpected, but falling to the SEC’s projected doormat would essentially end any shot that the Vols had at getting back to the College Football Playoff.

Tennessee is a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State odds, prediction

There is plenty to be encouraged about in Starkville in Jeff Lebby’s second season in charge.

The Bulldogs have already defeated a decent opponent (Arizona State), and they’ve made things look easy against inferior teams (Southern Miss, Northern Illinois). Tennessee is on a different level from ASU, and in a different universe compared to Southern Miss and NIU, but the Vols can’t afford to take State lightly.


Tennessee Volunteers football players walking on the field.
Joey Aguilar #6 of the Tennessee Volunteers looks on after a victory against the UAB Blazers at Neyland Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Knoxville, Tennessee. Getty Images

That’s not something we’d be saying a month ago.

Mississippi State has been solid all over the field, but sixth-year quarterback Blake Shapen has earned the headlines with his play. Shapen has completed 66 percent of his throws and is averaging 220 yards per game. He missed most of last year, which played a huge part in the Bulldogs’ rough year.

Whether or not Shapen can keep up with Joey Aguilar and Tennessee remains to be seen, but he’s got some serious playmakers in Anthony Evans III and Brenen Thompson, plus running back Fluff Bothwell can be trusted to move things along on the ground.


Betting on College Football?


Shapen and Mississippi State aren’t on the same level as Georgia, but they should have some confidence that they can have success against Tennessee’s defense after watching those Bulldogs carve up the Vols for 40-plus points.

If they can hang around, the crowd at Davis Wade Stadium should do the rest.

Get those cowbells ready.

The Play: Mississippi State +7.5 (-115, FanDuel)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.


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