Odds, picks, best bet for Wednesday night ‘MACtion’

One of the consequences of the massive changes to the college football landscape over the past five years is that there are showstoppers every week. The expansion of the Power 4 conferences means that we see bluebloods battling bluebloods in front of 100,000-plus every Saturday in the fall.

Some purists believe too much of a good thing is actually a bad thing, but I’d push back on that. No sport makes a spectacle out of a big game better than college football, so the more the merrier. In fact, I’d argue that the only thing better than a massive showdown between a couple of the best teams in the country is one between two of the worst.

There is nothing quite like watching a mistake-filled, see-saw battle on a cold, windy night that brings new meaning to the old broadcasting adage, “It seems like neither one of these teams wants to win this one.”

For those of you who are picking up what I’m putting down, I present you with what could be the worst game of the season: Northern Illinois vs. UMass at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Mass., on Wednesday night.

There is no question who the best team in the country is this season. The Ohio State Buckeyes are the defending champions, they’re undefeated, and they’re 7-1-1 against the spread.

There is also no question who is the worst team in the nation.

UMass is the only FBS outfit without a win this season, and the Minutemen are just 2-7 against the number, with their lone covers coming in a 36-point loss to Missouri and a seven-point defeat to Buffalo. The average margin of defeat in UMass games is 25.4 points, which is the worst mark in the country.

The Minutemen are dreadful on both sides of the ball, but the offense is truly a sight. UMass ranks 136th out of 136 in the following categories: points per game, yards per game, yards per play, points per play, and redzone scoring percentage.

Here’s the good news: Northern Illinois is not much better.

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The Huskies are more than capable on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense has rendered some stout performances by the defense useless this season.

Northern Illinois ranks 135th in points per game and points per play, and 133rd in yards per game and yards per play. The Huskies are averaging just 4.6 yards per pass (135th) and boast the third-worst completion percentage in FBS.

And if a showdown between the two worst offenses in college football wasn’t enough to get your juices flowing, Mother Nature is going to get involved, for good measure.

The forecast in Amherst is calling for temperatures to be in the 30s, with the possibility of some precipitation. The stands will almost certainly be empty for this game, which will be broadcast on ESPNU as part of the beloved “MACtion” package.

To recap: The two worst offenses in the country will meet in an empty stadium and play in near-freezing conditions, perhaps in the rain. This matchup has all the right ingredients to be one of the ugliest sporting events you’ve ever seen, and that means you need to give some serious consideration to not just the Under 43.5 points, but also some long-shot derivatives, like the first half to end 0-0 at 150/1 at FanDuel.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.