Odds, picks, best bet for Red River Rivalry

The broken bandwagons are piling on and you’d think the sky is falling in Austin. 

After the Longhorns fell to Florida, 29-21, last week, the preseason No. 1-ranked program slipped out of the AP Top 25 for the first time.

The line for Week 7’s Red River Rivalry against No. 6 Oklahoma also went sliding from opening at Texas -9.5 to 1.5.

At 3-2 and 0-1 in conference play, it may not be the season that was projected, but let’s look at this Texas team for what it really is before giving in to all this panic. 

Texas vs. Oklahoma odds, prediction

The Longhorns remain an elite defense that is tied for the nation’s third-overall scoring defense (12 points per game allowed). That 75 percent completion rate for the Gators last week was an outlier. Florida ran loads of short, timed throws that neutralized Texas’ pass rush.

Also, Texas played more off coverage in respect to Florida’s speed, which welcomed simple completions in front of defenders on early downs. 

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who is No. 4 on the Heisman oddsboard, is not likely to play after missing last week’s 44-0 smackdown over Kent State due to hand surgery. 

Sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. brings athleticism, except he’s a raw passer. His inexperience could sway this game in whether he’s up to task in reading coverages. Texas can bait him with disguised zones, which would force him to hold the ball longer and potentially increase sack and turnover opportunities. 

Oklahoma’s pass catchers aren’t necessarily elite route runners between Isiah Satenga III, Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis and Jaren Kanak. I’m expecting these kinds of press looks and man coverage execution by the Longhorns secondary, which thrives doing so. 

Texas’ run defense is where it can be most vulnerable in this game.

It is a top-10 program in defending against the run (79.6 ypg allowed) while the Sooners’ greatest run threat in Mateer leaves a backfield that ranks 97th overall (137.2 ypg). 

On the other side of the ball, I haven’t forgotten about the elephant in the room, Arch Manning. Yes, he’s been inconsistent, although there’s plenty of evident upside in his game through this five-game sample size — especially on the ground. He’s leading the Longhorns in both rushing yards (160) and rushing touchdowns (5), and has ripped a 14-plus-yard scamper in four of the five games.

He’s struggled with interceptions, yes. But Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone are big-play receivers who can win one-on-one matchups. 

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Betting on College Football?

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Manning may not be the Heisman frontrunner he once was, but he brings a dual-threat profile that this Oklahoma defense has yet to face — and that is being overlooked.

College football hierarchies are extremely reactionary and with both programs having moved in opposite directions through October, narratives are causing too much influence. 

This is a get-right game for Steve Sarkisian that can showcase numbers and abilities that aren’t being factored into this line. 

THE PLAY: Texas -1.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.