Odds, picks, best bet for Big Ten clash

This was supposed to be one of the most important games of the year.

Penn State, the No. 2 team in the preseason poll, against Ohio State, the defending champions, on a chilly November afternoon in front of 103,000 fans at the Horseshoe.

Instead, it feels like a dead-rubber match.

No. 1 Ohio State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) is almost certainly going to get into the College Football Playoff, while Penn State (3-4, 0-4) is playing out the string after a disastrous month that saw the Nittany Lions fire head coach James Franklin in the middle of a four-game slide against Oregon, UCLA, Northwestern and Iowa.

You could be tempted into thinking that this will be Penn State’s Super Bowl, but is that enough to warrant a bet on the Nittany Lions as 20.5-point underdogs in Columbus on Saturday?

Penn State vs. Ohio State odds, prediction

There is no getting around the fact that Penn State has been one of the most disappointing teams in the modern era of college football.

The Nittany Lions may not have been viewed as the best roster in the country coming into the campaign, but they were regarded as the team with the highest floor.

It was nearly impossible to envision how things could unravel in this manner.

That said, this is still a very talented team. There is plenty of talent on the roster, and even if the season is a wash, this game will be circled as a building block.

Not only can the Nittany Lions end their horrific four-game slide, but they can put Ohio State’s repeat bid on thin ice.

Pulling the upset would take a gargantuan effort, but keeping this game within three scores certainly seems feasible given Penn State’s strengths.

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Betting on College Football?

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It’s hard to imagine Penn State’s offense doing much damage against the Buckeyes. Ohio State grades out as the best defense in the country, giving up just 5.9 points per game and holding its last six opponents under 300 yards of total offense.

Deputy quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer is in a tight spot filling in for Drew Allar, but he’s been poor since being given the ball with Allar out.

But we’re not asking the world of Grunkemeyer on Saturday.

Can he just manage the game effectively enough to avoid giving Ohio State any cheap points? I think so, especially since you’d imagine that Penn State will want to hone in on the running game with their No. 1 quarterback in his streets.

As for Ohio State’s offense, it is effective, but plodding. Only four teams move at a slower pace with the ball than the Buckeyes, which makes it pretty difficult to cover a large spread, especially against a strong defense.

The Over/Under for this game is currently sitting at 44.5, which tells you that points will be at a premium all afternoon. If Penn State can find paydirt once or twice, it can keep this respectable.

The Play: Penn State +20.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.