Odds, picks, and preview for Week 4

We were dealt our first blow last week as Wyoming collapsed after holding Utah to just three points in the first half. Not covering a 23.5-point spread after going into the break down 3-0 is a tough break, but that’s why we call these picks “Ugly Underdogs.” Our dreams of a perfect season are over, but we’ll try to get to 3-1 with the Temple Owls on Saturday.

The Post’s betting staff had a meeting this week and during the small-talk portion of the powwow, one colleague revealed he bet Temple against Oklahoma last weekend. 

I’m paraphrasing, but this intrepid bettor summed up the experience thusly: “Every time I tuned in, Temple was doing something bad.”

Sounds like a ringing endorsement for a play on the Owls this weekend against one of the early darlings of the college football season, Georgia Tech.

There’s no getting around it: Temple was overmatched by Oklahoma in Week 3.

The Sooners raced out to a 28-3 lead at the half, and then took their foot off the pedal en route to a 42-3 shellacking. Temple tallied just 104 yards of offense and averaged 1.9 yards per play. Not great, Bob.

But here’s the important bit: It turns out that Oklahoma is very good. 

Temple vs. Georgia Tech odds, prediction

The Sooners have been shot out of a cannon to start the season, and quarterback John Mateer has established himself as an early Heisman frontrunner. The defense has been humming too.

Nobody is going to bump Temple up in their power rankings after getting routed, but don’t let a blowout loss against one of the best teams in the country hide the fact that the Owls look like an improved bunch under new head coach, K.C. Keeler.

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Betting on College Football?

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There’s no reason to throw a parade for beating UMass and Howard by a combined score of 97-17, but it’s also important to remember where Temple was coming from before this season started.

The Owls went 3-9 in 2024 and finished the campaign ranked as the 127th-best team in the country according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, a catch-all metric that holds considerable respect in the college football world. 

It’s early days, but Temple currently sits No. 98 in SP+.

This is a decent jump considering this is Year 1 under Keeler, who just finished a tremendous spell at Sam Houston State. 

Before that, Keeler turned Delaware into an FCS juggernaut, laying the foundation for the Blue Hens to join the FBS this season.

He wins everywhere he goes, and I’ve got no doubt he’ll have Temple turned around sooner rather than later.

That doesn’t mean you should expect Temple to give Georgia Tech a run for its money Saturday, but this game does have all the right ingredients for a market overreaction.

Georgia Tech is in a letdown spot after a seismic win over Clemson, Temple is coming in off a blowout loss, and the Yellow Jackets have become a romantic story after spending years in the college football wilderness. 

This may sound like a bad idea after Temple failed to cover a big spread against the Sooners, but the Owls should profile well as a pesky underdog this season.

They’re in the early throes of a rebuild, but Keeler is a master at getting programs heading in the right direction, and I have faith that Temple will give a decent account of themselves as a 23.5-point underdog at Bobby Dodd Stadium on Saturday.

BET: Temple +23.5 (-108, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.