Odds, picks, and best bet for Thursday’s college football clash

While most folks will be glued to “Thursday Night Football” between the Rams and 49ers, the true college football die-hards will be tuned into the goings on at Aggie Memorial Stadium as Sam Houston State (0-4, 0-1) visits New Mexico State (2-2, 0-1). 

Interestingly, it’s the winless BearKats that are 2.5-point favorites on the road.

Sam Houston enjoyed some immediate success at the FBS level under K.C. Keeler. But with Keeler now at Temple, the Bearkats are in rebuild mode under Phil Longo, an offensive specialist who wants his teams to move fast.

And while there is some hope that the offense will eventually turn things around, things are quite ugly right now, and the defense is not much better. Sam Houston has been a mess on both sides of the ball, which is not surprising given the turnover from 2024 to 2025.

Things aren’t much better for New Mexico State, which is still in no man’s land since Jerry Kill departed his post before last season.

Betting on College Football?

Steering New Mexico State was always going to be a tricky job, but it got tougher when talismanic quarterback Diego Pavia followed Kill to Vanderbilt.

That forced the program to reset, which led to a 3-9 season in 2024. 

Things don’t look like they’ll improve much in 2025, but the Aggies did notch a decent win (relatively speaking, of course) over Tulsa in Week 2.

That’s more than Sam Houston State has accomplished, which is why it’s perplexing that the BearKats are getting the respect in this matchup between two of the worst teams in the country.

The Play: New Mexico State +112 (FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.