Odds, best bet, picks for international friendly Tuesday
The United States Men’s National Team is getting dangerously close to a crisis.
After winning back some goodwill thanks to a gutsy performance at the 2025 Gold Cup this summer by a roster mostly made up of reserves, the main players wasted no time in squandering that support with a dreadful showing in a dreadful 2-0 loss to South Korea on Saturday.
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The loss was another in a long line of pedestrian results that, when blended with off-field drama, have thrown a lot of cold water on the Stars & Stripes ahead of a home World Cup in 2026.
There’s no such thing as a must-win friendly, but Tuesday’s match with Japan in Columbus, Ohio, carries much more weight for the USMNT than your run-of-the-mill exhibition.
USMNT vs. Japan odds, prediction
Despite playing at home, Team USA is the underdog Tuesday night.
The Americans are +210 to win the match, while Japan is +120, and the draw is currently sitting at +240 odds.
Japan is not a heavyweight by any means, but the Blue Samurai have established themselves as one of the best international teams outside of Europe and South America in recent years.
Not only did they pull a couple of stunning upsets at Qatar 2022 against Germany and Spain, but they carried that momentum into the current qualifying cycle by punching their ticket to World Cup 2026 with plenty of games to spare.
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Japan has become something of a model program for international teams outside of the elites. They have an identity, their players know their role inside and out and they are committed to the cause.
In a lot of ways, the Japanese National Team is everything the U.S. was during its heyday. There was stability, an identity and every player was pulling the rope in the same direction.
Manager Hajime Moriyasu has been in charge since 2018, and his players know what to expect from him and what is expected of them.
And what is expected from the players is a relentless pursuit of the ball. Japan plays an aggressive, fun-to-watch style of soccer that puts an emphasis on making its opponents uncomfortable.
The Blue Samurai put a ton of pressure on the ball, and when they win it, they fly forward to overwhelm the defense.
That high-octane style of soccer is built to overrun teams that are not confident moving the ball around the pitch, which is not good news for the Americans.
Team USA has given us no reason to believe that they’ll be able to handle this kind of assignment, so take the Japanese to get the win Tuesday night.
The Play: Japan +120 (FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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