NHL odds, picks, best bet Wednesday
The unpredictability of the Rangers can be left in Manhattan after they were chagrined 5-0 by the Islanders before erupting for six goals against the piteous Predators Monday night.
They revert back to their alter ego on Wednesday against the Lightning as a road team that’s 7-1-1.
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All in all, the Rangers’ home and away splits through 15 games have made handicapping analysis pretty black and white: while goals are coming more moderately, they are significantly stronger on defense, allowing 1.88 goals per game, stopping 93 percent of shots and killing penalties at an 85 percent clip.
In fact, between Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Fox and Will Borgen, the Rangers have received sound defensive contributions across the board this year.
Their most effective two-way forward, Vincent Trocheck, also returned to the lineup on Monday to block a shot and force a pair of turnovers.
No team has a lower expected goals against per 60 minutes than the Rangers at 2.12 per MoneyPuck.
Many ask for the moon from Igor Shesterkin, who is No. 20 of 73 qualifying goaltenders in MoneyPuck’s GSAx. There have been some hiccups over these last couple of weeks, but Shesterkin remains sound in high danger situations, stopping the 13th-best rate of them amongst all netminders at 88 percent.
Besides, Shesterkin has a scintillating resume against the Lightning: He is 7-3-1 with a 2.25 GAA and a .924 SV%.
Betting on the NHL?
It’s always a duel between him and fellow countrymen and Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has won five of his past six starts, relinquishing 2.00 goals and denying over 92 percent of shots faced in that stretch.
Although the Rangers offer some underdog value, it’s tough to back this now-and-then offense — especially given that the power play isn’t much more efficient on the road.
It’s scored at a 16 percent rate and I wouldn’t hold my breath against the Lightning’s No. 1 penalty kill.
Place stock in the only empirical proficiency the Rangers have demonstrated against a club with a disciplined collapse-and-protect structure: defense.
THE PLAY: Under 6 (-115, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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