NHL odds, picks, best bet Saturday

There’s more cause and effect to athlete superstitions than many might think.

Artemi Panarin shaved his head and then overcame a career-long six-game point drought with a goal and two assists in the Rangers’ preceding 4-1 victory over the Red Wings on Friday. 

But they’re back at Madison Square Garden where they are 0-5-1, a stark contrast to their 7-1-1 road record, facing the Islanders on Saturday. 

On the surface, it’s difficult to find rationale in backing a team with a 3.6 shooting percentage under their own roof — a rate that’s made for six goals in as many games.

The Rangers’ power play has been dreadful at home and on the road, no less, ranking No. 32 overall. 

What is reassuring is that the Rangers still retain the NHL’s highest high-danger scoring chance rate.

Aside from the 18 they generated against the Red Wings, they got 10 prime looks against the Hurricanes at home in their 3-0 loss on Tuesday, according to Natural Stat Trick. 

Carolina is the ultimate litmus test as far as I’m concerned. The Hurricanes are the No. 1 club in puck possession in all situations per MoneyPuck. They play with elite structure and relentless pressure, closing space with tight defensive systems and forcing opponents into low-danger shots.

Not to say the Rangers earned an “A “on their report card in that loss, but they forced 26 turnovers to the Canes’ 14.

Now come the Islanders to MSG, who rank No. 27 in expected goals (the Rangers rank second) and are also playing a back-to-back after a discombobulated 5-2 loss to Minnesota. 

Ilya Sorokin’s game is in a concerning place. He’s stopping 88 percent of shots faced, sports a -1.0 GSAx and has even turned to Patrick Roy for answers. 

For as incompetent as the Rangers power play has been, one thing we can credit them for is an outstanding penalty kill that’s succeeding at an 85 percent clip. That unit will draw an Islanders power play that’s 7-for-48.

From my vantage, trends are usually coincidental, but some are worth noting: The Rangers swept the season series last year and have won five straight against the Isles. 

The Islanders have lost the second leg of back-to-backs on the road 14 of the last 17 times.

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Betting on the NHL?

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The Rangers may look cursed on Garden ice, but something will give for a team that’s relinquished the second-fewest goals in hockey (35 in 15 games). 

There’s enough contrast between these teams to punt on the Rangers’ puck line value with Igor Shesterkin vying for his first home win. 

I’d also give Panarin’s anytime goal scorer prop a look at +155 odds (FanDuel Sportsbook).

Aside from the new haircut, he scored five goals in four games against the Isles last year and has 16 points in his last 10 meetings.

THE PICK: Rangers -1.5 (+164, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.