NHL futures bettors can take advantage of postseason chalk

The NHL prides — and markets — itself on parity. 

Hockey is a chaotic, unpredictable sport, and the perception is that anybody can win.

On any given night, in any given season, we are to expect the unexpected in the National Hockey League.

And while there are plenty of upsets and surprises in the regular season, the playoffs were incredibly chalky.

Only one underdog (Dallas Stars over Colorado Avalanche) advanced in Round 1, and there were no more upsets until the Stanley Cup Final, when the Panthers lifted the trophy after starting their best-of-seven series with the Oilers as a slight +110 pooch

Not exactly David vs. Goliath.

In 2023-24, it wasn’t all that different. All eight favorites advanced in Round 1 last spring, and just two teams (Rangers over Carolina Hurricanes in Round 2 and Oilers over Stars in Round 3) pulled an upset during the playoffs. 

This is not normal. 

In the previous playoffs, there was an average of six upsets, including a handful of real shockers.

Going back to the 2013-14 season, when the NHL realigned and changed playoff formats, the average Opening Night price of the Stanley Cup winner is +1250, with just two teams cashing at anything above 15/1 odds. 

The 2023-24 Florida Panthers started the season as a 20/1 outsider, while the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues began that campaign at 30/1. 

The last time there was a true long-shot winner was back in 2005-06, the first season after a lockout wiped out the entire 2004-05 campaign, when the Carolina Hurricanes stunned everyone at 60/1 odds. 

It’s also worth noting that the betting landscape (not just in hockey, but all sports) has changed significantly over that time, which has caused future odds to tighten. 

It was a rarity to see more than two or three teams start the NHL season with single-digit prices, even a couple of years ago, but now things are incredibly bunched up at the top of the board.

There are five teams with Stanley Cup odds less than 10/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook for the 2025-26 campaign, and there are four more under 20/1. 

Your next Stanley Cup champion will likely come from that cohort. 

That sounds like an obvious thing to say, but it is worth bringing up because of the reputation that hockey has among sports fans and bettors.

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The NBA playoffs are supposed to be chalky and predictable, while the NHL’s postseason is assumed to be full of upsets and Cinderellas.

That just isn’t the case anymore.

The NBA postseason have had five upsets (and potentially a sixth if the Pacers win Sunday) this season, and there were 11 more in the previous two tournaments. 

The last six teams to make it to the NBA Finals have had average odds of 22/1, and that includes last year’s Boston Celtics, who were +400 on Opening Night, and the current favorite Oklahoma City Thunder, who owned +500 odds to start this season.

The last six teams to make it to the Stanley Cup Final have had average odds of 16/1, and no teams that entered the season at 20/1 or longer have made it to the championship series since the Montreal Canadiens did so in the shortened 2020-21 campaign.

Maybe the pendulum will swing back the other way and we’ll see some chaos in 2025-26, but as it stands right now, the NHL’s reputation for being unpredictable is fake news.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.