NFL Week 18 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game

I woke up on New Year’s morning to an article on nypost.com detailing Nostradamus’ predictions for 2026. Now, that’s a tough act to follow, isn’t it? 

Here in the Picks Department, we’re still trying to get through the 2025 NFL season with winning records overall and in Best Bets. Week 18 figures to make that difficult with its variety of playoff and tanking scenarios. Unless those things turn out to make it easier.

We shall see. Here we go, and happy New Year! 

SATURDAY 

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Panthers

Incredible mistake by the NFL schedulers to plant this as a stand-alone, winner-take-all game for the NFC South title, only to have the Falcons upset the Rams on Monday night. So the situation now is the Panthers will win the division with a victory here, or with a Falcons home victory over the Saints on Sunday. Seems to defeat the stated purpose of starting all games that have contingent meaning at the same time. 

The other thing that strikes me about this game is Todd Bowles calling out Baker Mayfield. I’d submit the Bucs’ current 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS streak has as much to do with the coach than the quarterback, even if Mayfield’s performance has gone quite a bit south. 

I still think of Mayfield as the guy who saved the Bucs’ season, winning enough games early without almost all of his receivers and running backs to give them a chance in the final week. Saturday, they’ll have most of their big names available, and I think Mayfield will deliver … even if the division could slip away 24 hours later. 

Seahawks (-1.5) over 49ERS

This one is for the NFC West crown and the all-important No. 1 seed in the NFC. The hesitation here revolves around Sam Darnold, who has 20 turnovers (14 interceptions, six lost fumbles) and also brought the Vikings to a similar point last season before imploding in Week 18 and in the playoffs. So there’s some recent negative history with him heading into a game in which he’s a small road favorite. 

The difference here is that the 49ers haven’t been generating much of a pass rush (NFL-low 18 sacks), and I doubt they’ll be able to force Darnold to continue making the big mistakes. He should have his way to use Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba while Seattle’s excellent defense gets after Brock Purdy. 

SUNDAY 

GIANTS (+3.5) over Cowboys

Well, I guess we saw last week that the Giants are more concerned with finishing strong than they are about draft position after they served up the No. 1 overall pick to the shameless Raiders on a Caesars Palace gold platter. At the very least, possibly the small spread could help here if the Cowboys decide to start Dak Prescott and leave him in. 

BILLS (-6.5) over Jets

This line has cratered from 11.5 on the expectation that ailing Josh Allen and other Bills starters will sit out to rest up for the wild-card round. It’s the final game at Highmark Stadium (formerly known as Rich and The Ralph). I figure whoever the Bills put out there with Mitch Trubisky will be motivated enough to win by double digits against a Jets team that posted possibly the worst December in NFL history and now has shut down Breece Hall. 

FALCONS (-3.5) over Saints

If the Panthers end up needing a Falcons win, they just got some additional help with the news that Saints top receiver, Chris Olave, will miss the game with a blood clot in his lung. Best wishes to him. Atlanta is playing on a short week with cross-country travel after a Monday night upset of the Rams. The circumstances could keep them interested enough, though. 

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Betting on the NFL?

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Browns (+7.5) over BENGALS

Myles Garrett has 22 sacks, and with one more will pass Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt (22.5) for the single-season record. The Browns defense certainly was on point in a 13-6 win over the Steelers last week, draft position be damned. And the Bengals probably won’t want to give Garrett too many chances to plaster Joe Burrow into the cold, hard turf. 

VIKINGS (-7.5) over Packers

Green Bay is locked into the seventh seed in the NFC, and Job 1 is to keep injured QBs Jordan Love and Malik Willis out of harm’s way. So it should be mainly Clayton Tune against an angry Brian Flores defense that will be looking to save some face at the end of a disheartening season. 

Titans (+13.5) over JAGUARS

Toughest situational call on the card as the Jags are still looking to clinch the AFC South and could rise to first seed if the Patriots and Broncos lose in the late window. Still, any size win would serve that purpose, and this is a ton of points to lay against a Titans offense that has been perky of late (26.8 ppg past four games). 

Colts (+10.5) over TEXANS

Home team still has AFC South title hopes that may start to flicker if the Jaguars start to pull away from the Titans. Texans have won eight in a row, but seven of those came by less than this number. 

BEARS (-3) over Lions

With a division title and home playoff game already secure, the Bears can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win. Can’t see the Lions being too thrilled about dragging their carcasses to Chicago in 32-degree temps to try to combat Caleb Williams and Co. 

BRONCOS (-12.5) over Chargers

Figure Jim Harbaugh provided the answer by starting Trey Lance and resting Justin Herbert, and likely a lot of other starters. The Broncos would clinch the No. 1 AFC seed with a win, and there doesn’t seem to be much resistance here. 

Chiefs (-5.5) over RAIDERS

Even if the K.C. offense has scout team and practice squad players in key spots, Steve Spagnuolo still has a lot of his guys on defense, and the Raiders showed how much the No. 1 overall pick means to them last week in possibly the greatest tanking performance in NFL history. 

RAMS (-7.5) over Cardinals

Matthew Stafford and the Rams starters are expected to play as Sean McVay tries to right the ship before the playoffs. If Seattle wins Saturday, there’s a chance the Rams could move from No. 6 to No. 5. Good idea to hold off betting this until that scenario becomes more clear, but since I’m taking the Seahawks, I’ll try this, too. 

Dolphins (+10.5) over PATRIOTS

The Patriots’ motivation for the No. 1 seed would dry up if the Broncos take the lead on the Chargers. I wouldn’t mind holding a double-digit ’dog ticket on the Dolphins if that’s the case, particularly given the recent criminal charges against New England’s Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore. 

EAGLES (-4) over Commanders

Maybe I’m being a little inconsistent here because the Eagles’ bid to improve their seeding likely will be diminished with the scoreboard posting of Bears-Lions. Just thinking the Eagles would finish the job anyway and cover this modest spread against players who already have packed for Cabo. 

Ravens (-3.5) over STEELERS

I wouldn’t put it past Aaron Rodgers to get this done, but he needs a minor miracle after DK Metcalf’s debilitating suspension. This offense had nothing vs. Cleveland and now will figure to need to score a lot if the Ravens can add Lamar Jackson back with thundering Derrick Henry. Ravens steal the AFC North in Game 272. 

BEST BETS: Bears, Bills, Ravens. 

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Bears (Locks 6-11 in 2025). 

LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.