NFL Week 14 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game

It’s week 14 in the NFL, and with the Giants at 2-11 and Jets at 3-9, it’s already draft season in the East Rutherford. 

Let’s not get too deep into the question of whether the Jets should tank for Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, because they’re not doing that. 

(As an early aside, we don’t really even know yet if Mendoza will end up being “The Guy.” There’s still a showdown with Ohio State on Saturday, the entire College Football Playoff, and all of the pre-draft hype and marketing).

The Jets have won two in a row to drop below the expected Mendoza line, and any more success would cause them to have to trade way too much of the haul they just got for Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. 

You can also make the case that it would be better for the Jets to build their team out a little more and add the QB of the future next year, when they have three No. 1 picks. If Oregon’s Dante Moore and/or Alabama’s Ty Simpson stay on campus, the 2027 draft will be chock-full of quarterbacks.

It could be instructive that the current holders of the top two picks — the Titans and Giants — drafted quarterbacks into bad teams and already have fired their head coaches. Cam Ward (first) and Jaxson Dart (25th) could still end up being cornerstone players, but their teams remain in terrible shape.

If I’m Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn, I look for a home-run hitter at wide receiver and keep building the wall on the offensive line. Whenever the new quarterback arrives, he’d be equipped to succeed. I’d also trade down a few times to add picks in the third and fourth rounds. This is how Glenn will be able to build the defense he wants with “his guys.”

As for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins at MetLife Stadium, I think the tank fans will get to keep grousing. The Jets have risen to seventh in rushing yards per game while the Dolphins are 29th in rushing yards allowed. The Jets special teams also could continue to make a difference. Now, if they could only force a turnover or two on defense … 

Oh, and fun fact: Guess which team is the best against the spread in the AFC. It’s the Jets at 8-4. 

The pick: Jets +3. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

One week, the Steelers defense gives up three touchdown passes to Caleb Williams in a 31-28 loss at the Bears. The next, 249 rushing yards in a 26-7 home trampling by the Bills. Not what you want with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson ahead. Aaron Rodgers is also dealing with a fractured wrist and mangled nose.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Both teams are in the top four in sacks. I trust Sam Darnold to handle the pressure a little better than Kirk Cousins. It’s a lot of points to give on the road, and the Falcons can still be dangerous, but if you like the Seahawks to win, you might as well lay the number. Seven of their nine wins have been by eight points or more.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) over BUFFALO BILLS

The Bengals have a few extra days after their stunning Thursday rout in Baltimore. The weather forecast is in the Bills’ favor — 29 degrees with a few snow showers. Hoping this great Joe Burrow-Josh Allen QB matchup delivers a close game. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) over Tennessee Titans

The Titans rank 32nd in yards per game and points per game. Myles Garrett’s front lawn is one of the last places they’d like to be, particularly with temperatures dropping into the 20s. All but one of the Titans’ 11 loses have been by six points or more. 

Washington Commanders (+2) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

After back-to-back overtime losses to the Dolphins and Broncos to run their losing streak to seven games, the Commanders are ready to win one. Terry McLaurin makes all the difference. Keep an eye on the injury news as both Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy are attempting to return.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-8.5) over New Orleans Saints

The Bucs should just hang a “Questionable” sign on Raymond James Stadium, given all of the top players on offense who might or might not play Sunday. The defense, however, is intact, and New Orleans is averaging just 13.5 ppg in Tyler Shough’s four starts. 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+1.5) over Indianapolis Colts

The teams are tied at 8-4 atop the AFC South with the Texans on their heels. The Colts’ record breaks down to 6-1 home/neutral and just 2-3 on the road. The Jags are 4-2 at home. Daniel Jones is playing on a broken leg and Sauce Gardner (calf) is doubtful for Indianapolis.

Denver Broncos (-7.5) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Surprised this spread is so low for a 10-2 vs. 2-10 matchup. Maybe it’s because the Raiders covered in a 10-7 loss at Denver on Nov. 6. The Raiders are done until the draft party, as I see it. And now Geno Smith is dealing with a foot injury. Any loss of mobility would be critical against the swarming Denver defense. This could be a chance for Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram to flex a little.

Chicago Bears (+6.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

I’ve seen some Packers backers point to the Bears plus-17 turnover differential as something that’s unsustainable. Keeping an eye on this phenomenon over the years, my sense (without any official statistics) is that the big takeaway teams can keep doing it throughout the season before it becomes a regression point the next year.

The Lambeau after-dark weather will have a real feel of around zero degrees, but I don’t see that as much of an edge for the Pack against another cold-weather team. 

Los Angeles Rams (-8) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Unlike Broncos-Raiders, this line strikes as a little high for a 9-3 team at a 3-9. The Cardinals did cover a +4 last week at Tampa Bay. Happy to back the Rams off a loss. Since Oct. 12, five of their six wins have been by 14 points or more, so that takes some of the trepidation away from this number. 

Houston Texans (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Keeping an eye on injury news for the right side of the Chiefs offensive line, where there are questions about Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor. If they’re out or compromised, Patrick Mahomes will be looking at a face full of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., as the Texans defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards and points allowed per game. Anderson also won’t forget the laughable roughing the passer called on him in last season’s playoff game at Arrowhead.

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Betting on the NFL?

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Monday

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Eagles offense isn’t completely broken. A.J. Brown has 242 receiving yards in the past two games, both losses. This pick is mainly built on the defending champs circling the wagons for a Monday night road game in which they might have the crowd advantage. That could spur them on. Also, Justin Herbert had surgery Monday to insert a plate and screws into his non-throwing hand. He’s preparing to play, but that can’t feel good. And three of the Chargers’ four losses have been by 14 points or more.

BEST BETS: Broncos, Browns, Commanders.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Broncos (Locks 5-8 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 9-6-1 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Cowboys.