NFL predictions, picks for Week 5 slate

The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 5 slate.

Sunday

New York Giants (+1.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The advanced stats dislike the Giants in this game, but I’m not putting too much stock into that yet. Big Blue has a new dynamic quarterback in Jaxson Dart, and Andrew Thomas is back at left tackle. Brian Daboll’s group opened as 1.5-point favorites before losing Malik Nabers to injury, and the ensuing line moved three points. Too many points for a wide receiver, I’ll take the Giants to show some run-stopping prowess. They are last in DVOA against the run but 13th best in run stop win rate.

JETS (+2.5) over Cowboys

Dallas is banged up. After the Cowboys gave the Packers everything they could handle last Sunday night, they head to MetLife for a date with the Giants. My model has the Jets as favorites here, with a projected score of 22.41 to 20.35. Rarely is a line five points off, but I’ll trust the model here, especially with Gang Green the healthier squad.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5) over Minnesota Vikings

Unproven rookie vs. aging veteran facing a tough pass rush. In what I expect to be a low-scoring affair, I’ll take the Browns’ defense, which is rated No. 2 in DVOA, ahead of the Vikings, who are No. 8. Dillon Gabriel, in his first start, is unlikely to play too well, but I’ll trust the defense and run-first approach with Quinshon Judkins. The Vikings are actually No. 27 against the run in DVOA, and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

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Betting on the NFL?

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Raiders +6.5 over COLTS

My model has the spread at eight, but the Colts have been playing out of their minds this season, while I actually think the Raiders’ offense has become underrated. Indianapolis is No. 1 in yards per play (6.5), while the Raiders are No. 14 (5.5). Ashton Jeanty has another big game as the Colts quietly have allowed 4.5 yards per carry, 20th in the NFL.

Texans -1.5 over RAVENS

Nightmare spot for the Ravens with most of their team out with an injury. With Lamar Jackson playing, my model has this matchup at 20.35 to 19.24. If you assume that the difference between Jackson and backup Cooper Rush is a four-point difference against the spread, you have the Texans as closer to field goal favorites.

Broncos +4.5 over EAGLES

I had the Broncos +5.5 earlier in the week, and this one is trending towards a field goal spot where I will still be backing Denver. The Broncos are No. 1 in the NFL in net yards per play (yards per play allowed minus yards per play). The Eagles are the third-worst in that category, ahead of only the Titans and Bengals. Yuk.

Dolphins -1.5 over PANTHERS

My model has the Dolphins as three-point favorites on the road, meaning they would be close to six-point favorites at home. The now-injured receiver Tyreek Hill boosts Miami’s stats a bit. The Panthers are fourth-worst in net yards per play and allow 4.9 yards per carry, fourth-worst. Whoever scores first probably wins.

Titans +8.5 over CARDINALS

Fading Kyler Murray, even with time to prepare for Tennessee after a mini bye week. The Titans have not been good in any facet of the game this season, but the NFL is a week-to-week league, and my model says this spread is too big. I have a projected score of 17.73 to 24.49, so we’re getting an extra point and a half. The Cardinals did not cover against the Saints or Panthers this season.

SEAHAWKS -3 over Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is battered, broken, and bruised, while the Seahawks are excellent in every phase of the game right now. The league’s No. 1 special teams per DVOA is also No. 2 in net yards per play. The Buccaneers will be without Mike Evans, large pieces of their secondary, and stud running back Bucky Irving.

BENGALS +10.5 over Lions

This is where I draw the line on the Bengals hate. Jake Browning has been horrific as the starter, but he should perform a bit better this week against a Lions defense allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt, the 12th worst in the league.

Commanders +2.5 over CHARGERS

Washington gets back the cavalry as Jayden Daniels returns to face another injury-prone squad. The Chargers are missing at least two starting offensive linemen, while the Commanders get back Daniels. I expect the Commanders to really lean into the run game with Terry McLaurin. Washington is fifth in the league against the run per DVOA, and the Chargers’ offensive line is too beat up for me to trust them to throw for the win.

BILLS -8.5 over Patriots

My model is pretty surprisingly showing value on the Bills at home here. With a projected score of 28.57 to 18.83, this looks to be a good week to target the Bills and Josh Allen to throw the ball all over the Patriots’ poor secondary. New England is allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt (fourth worst).

Monday

Chiefs -3 over JAGUARS

The Chiefs are still Super Bowl contenders. I love defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile’s defense in Jacksonville, but I’m still looking to target the Chiefs this week and in futures. The Jaguars’ offense has a really tough task against the Chiefs’ defense, which is No. 6 against the run in DVOA, while the Jacksonville offense is No. 20 at passing the ball on offense.

Last week: 11-4
This season: 25-33

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.