‘Monday Night Football’ odds, pick, best bet
The Cowboys host the Cardinals on “Monday Night Football” to close out Week 9 of the NFL season.
The Cardinals (2-5) and Cowboys (3-4-1) are both under .500 entering the game — not ideal for a primetime game — but one could make the case these are two competitive teams in the conference who just haven’t had things go their way.
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The Cards have lost five games in a row, but have a minus-1 point differential, better than three teams at or above .500 in the NFC. The Cowboys would be 4-4 if not for a tie against the Packers in a wild Week 4 game.
The ifs and buts aside, the Cowboys are 3-point home favorites with a chance to get a win entering their bye week.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys odds, prediction
This is an interesting game to handicap. The Cardinals will start Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for the third straight game because Kyler Murray is still recovering from a foot injury.
Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon did say Murray could “have a role,” according to Cardinals team writer Darren Urban, but it’s unclear what that means and whether it will make any difference.
The Cardinals are the definition of league average. Their offense scores on 40.6 percent of drives, just barely above the league average rate of 39.9, and the defense allows points on 41.1 percent of drives. Those two numbers sum up why the Cardinals have been outscored by a single point this season.
Brissett has looked serviceable in his past two starts, but the results have been the same. During this midseason spiral, the Cardinals have lost every game by one possession, including two games by a single point.
The Cowboys are a different story. They are putting up incredible offensive numbers this season, averaging 30.8 points and 384.1 yards per game, both good for second-best in the league entering Week 9.
But the Dallas defense can’t stop a nosebleed. They rank 31st in points allowed per game (31.3 ppg) and last in scoring percentage per drive (49.4 percent). That dynamic has led to some wild swings week to week: they trampled the Commanders 44-22 in Week 7, then suffered a 44-24 loss in Denver the following Sunday.
Betting on the NFL?
I don’t expect the Cowboys to suddenly wake up and be a good defensive team. But I do expect their offense to continue the torrid stretch they’ve been on, which has negated the shortcomings of the defense. The Cardinals should be able to score on the Cowboys, but their defense has given up a fourth-quarter lead in four of the five losses. I think that will continue to be their downfall.
The Cowboys have also been a good bet in this spot. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Cowboys are 18-11 against the spread as home favorites, covering the spread by 5.6 points in those games, according to Team Rankings. Only the Lions cover the spread by more points (+6.5) in those spots than the Cowboys.
This line is moving to -3.5 at some sportsbooks, so I’ll take Dallas to cover at -3.
The PLAY: Cowboys -3 (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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