MLB playoff picks, odds, best bets
The Dodgers’ MLB postseason pedigree has shown itself tenfold through their first four games of these playoffs.
Monday’s 4-3 thriller over the Phillies demonstrated the timely offense and run-production depth that makes all the extravagant spending everyone complains about worth it.
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The reigning world champions have cranked 135 wRC+ and slashed .289/.365/.486.
In Game 3, we’ll see Aaron Nola face down this gauntlet of a lineup in an attempt to extend the Phillies’ season for another day.
Philadelphia’s No. 3 starter isn’t much of what he used to be; after missing three months with a stress fracture in his rib and a sprained ankle, Nola returned to cap a 6.01 ERA campaign — his worst in an 11-year career.
But let’s talk about the fact that Nola projected a 4.24 xERA, an indicator that emphasizes poorly timed mistakes and the Phillies’ inconsistent fielding inflating his surface numbers.
Nola’s strikeout prop line being set at 2.5 should still raise eyebrows.
When he faced the Dodgers on April 5, he only struck out two batters. That doesn’t speak as much as Nola having notched three strikeouts in all 10 of his career postseason starts.
He also hit this mark in all eight of the starts he made since returning in August, producing a 9.2 K/9.
The market doubts him in this spot because the 32-year-old has lost some velocity, which has led to some ugly contact metrics on his fastball.
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What’s more is his inconsistency with feeling the zone — an issue that has bumped his walk rate up since he’s struggled to get ahead in counts.
Nola’s pitch mix still plays though. He sports a putaway rate above 22% with his knuckle curve, sinker, changeup and cutter — all of which generate whiffs below the zone. Nola was exceptionally effective in prompting batters to swing at non-strikes, placing him within the top 7% of pitchers.
Then, it’s a question of his durability. Can he last deep enough to sit three hitters?
Barring his first start back from injury on Aug. 17, in which he still fanned four batters, Nola pitched a minimum of five innings in every start since returning.
For a line this low on a seasoned postseason pitcher on a contending club with its back against the wall, what are we waiting for?
THE PLAY: Aaron Nola Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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