Maria Corina Machado would easily win ‘fair’ Venezuela election, backers claim

WASHINGTON — Opposition candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado would win a free and fair Venezuelan election in a landslide, both her party and international observers say, but the odds of democracy playing out in Caracas are slim with dictator Nicolas Maduro’s deputy still at the helm.

Venezuelans have already made their choice loud and clear — even under brutal, rigged conditions during the nation’s 2024 elections, Venezuela’s opposition party spokesman Pedro Urruchurtu Noselli told The Post on Monday.

Opposition candidate Edmundo González — who ran in Machado’s stead after Maduro banned her from running for office — won a whopping 67% of the vote, compared to Maduro’s 30%, according to printouts of the vote obtained by the opposition but denied by the Venezuelan dictator.

“Even with unfair conditions, intimidation and repression, we were able to show the magnitude of our victory,” Urruchurtu Noselli said. “If Venezuela had a real free election, the result would not be 70–30. It would be closer to 90–10.”

Machado, who won the opposition primary in October 2023 with an overwhelming 93% of the vote before Maduro nullified her, and opposition-backed president-elect Edmundo González Urrutia represent what Urruchurtu called the country’s only “legitimate and trusted leadership.”

“That is who Venezuelans trust to lead a real transition — not only politically, but with real plans, real teams, and real programs ready to implement immediately,” he said.

But Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called those elections “illegitimate” in an interview with Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation” — something with which even the opposition’s supporters agree, due to Maduro’s influence.

‘Nothing has changed’

While the opposition wants President Trump to recognize the legitimacy of the opposition’s leadership, the administration has decided instead to attempt to work with Maduro’s vice president Delcy Rodriguez, who was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president in a ceremony Monday.

Left without a duly elected leader from which to choose, the idea — at least for now — is that the US will allow Rodriguez to stay in power, while keeping her on a leash, until Venezuela can be secured enough for free and fair elections to take place, Rubio and Trump have said in recent days.

Asked whether the president truly believes Rodriguez will be any different than Maduro in willingness to work with the US, a senior White House official told The Post that he believes “she’ll be different” because “circumstances in Venezuela are vastly different” after the US arrested Maduro on Saturday.

But Urruchurtu Noselli on Monday told The Post that he isn’t seeing any reason to believe Rodriguez is warming to Washington — particularly after she directed police to arrest anyone who cheered for Maduro’s capture as part of a state of emergency decree issued Saturday, but published Monday.

“How can you think reforms and democratization are possible when people are being persecuted just for posting online or expressing joy?” he asked. “Nothing has changed. The behavior is exactly the same.”

But if Rodriguez could somehow be convinced to hold new elections, Venezuelan politician and former deputy of the National Assembly of Venezuela Carlos Paparoni told The Post he would “bet his house” that the opposition would win by a landslide in Caracas if free and fair elections were held.

“With complete seriousness and responsibility, I tell you that there is no human way that Maria Corina can lose an election in Venezuela today,” he said. “People feel that there’s no public figure who can compete with [her.]”

A source close to the White House and read-in on its Venezuela strategy concurred: “If it was a free and fair election tomorrow, MCM would win by 50 points.”

Largely for that reason, Venezuela experts both in and outside the opposition do not believe Rodriguez is willing to ever hold free and fair elections to establish a new government.

‘Dismantled democracy’

Venezuela expert and New York attorney Eva Golinger on Monday told The Post that she believed “that things are still quite far from that possibility [of holding a Venezuelan election] at the present time.”

“While the US ‘analysts’ and media are discussing Venezuela’s ‘transition’, everything remains pretty much the same inside Venezuela, minus Maduro & Cilia, and those killed in the US attack,” she posted to X, referencing the dictator and his wife who were arrested together. “Today Venezuelans are installing their new legislative period and the government is intact. The same people are in power.”

“Maduro’s son is leading the legislative session,” she added.

Similarly, Urruchurtu Noselli warned that hopes of a new election are being crushed as Maduro’s lieutenants remain entrenched — including figures now running the country after the dictator’s detention.

“These are the same people, part of the same criminal structure,” he said. “They dismantled democracy. They cannot be the guarantors of rebuilding it.”

The opposition wants the international world to acknowledge them as legitimate leaders who could then oversee a free and fair election — that Rodriguez is unlikely to support.

Without that, Urruchurtu Noselli said any credible transition must begin with the immediate, unconditional release of political prisoners and an end to repression — steps the remaining regime officials have refused to take.

“The first signal must be freedom — freedom of expression, freedom for political prisoners, respect for human rights,” he said. “Without that, there is no democracy.”

‘Real day of liberation’

Despite the grim outlook inside Venezuela, the opposition praised Trump for moving forcefully against Maduro and his criminal network.

“We are deeply grateful to President Trump and his administration,” Urruchurtu Noselli said. “Seeing Maduro detained is a huge victory for the Venezuelan people — the first step toward liberation.”

But he stressed that liberation is not complete while the same power structure remains in control.

“The real day of liberation will be when the entire criminal structure is dismantled and the legitimate leadership takes office,” he said.

Urruchurtu said the opposition is ready to govern immediately and to work closely with Washington, calling the United States Venezuela’s most important ally.

“We are ready to take power. We are ready to implement reforms. We are ready to work with President Trump,” he said. “But the transition must reflect what Venezuelans already decided at the ballot box.”