Liberty vs. Mercury Game 3 prediction: WNBA playoffs picks, odds

The New York Liberty are the defending WNBA champions but have not resembled a title contender over the past two months.

Sports bettors have had to assess whether the subpar statistics and results are an accurate representation or whether they will shine once the playoffs arrived. I subscribe to the former.

The Liberty were dominated at home Wednesday and faces a decisive Game 3 on the road in its first-round series. The Liberty are two-point underdogs at the Mercury with a total of 155.5 points.

The Liberty entered the postseason with the consensus third-shortest title odds, but I firmly believe the betting market has been overvaluing this squad.

At its best, the Liberty are fairly elite but we rarely see that version for long stretches. I would truly be stunned if it defends their title.

Truthfully, the Liberty were pretty fortunate last year, as the stars seemingly aligned across the board.

Not only did they catch a favorable whistle in the decisive Game 5 in the WNBA Finals, but they enjoyed a lot of breaks along the way.

Simply, last year’s Liberty squad would not win the championship against this field.

In my eyes, the WNBA has been evolving noticeably in recent years.

The Liberty held a competitive advantage with their high IQ but that edge is nearly gone because players are now more athletic and have a better feel for the game. 

Specifically, Sabrina Ionescu is struggling mightily because she lacks speed and athleticism. Improved defenders are limiting her ability to create open shots and her risky passes now look reckless.

That is why she is just 9 of 31 in this series, including 4 of 20 from behind the arc — after shooting a career-low 29.9 percent from 3 in the regular season.

She’s a great ambassador for the league and affects defenses as a shooting threat, but her true impact has diminished. 

In fact, all the Liberty stars (Ionescu, Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart) appear slow. Plus, opposing defenses are daring point guard Natasha Cloud to shoot so that has complicated New York’s halfcourt offense.

Former Finals MVP Emma Meesseman joined the team midseason to bolster the bench, but she has only accentuated the athletic deficit.

---

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

---

Over the past 15 games and among the eight playoff teams, the Liberty rank dead last in pace, turnover percentage and net rating. This is a sluggish, wounded animal that will be put down sooner than later. 

I lost betting against the Liberty in Game 1 and won in Game 2.

I will continue to fade them until they are eliminated, which I believe happens in Phoenix. I have a 63-52-1 record in this Post sports section.

My next pick is the Mercury -2 against New York (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).

---

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.