Iran’s exiled crown prince is not the man to lead a revolution

The Islamic Republic in Iran is currently facing massive protests as hundreds of thousands (if not more) Iranians turn out into the streets with chants of “death to the dictator” and “we don’t want an Islamic Republic.”

The current protests are the biggest seen since the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising swept the country. Protesters have also chanted “Javid Shah,” or “Long Live the King,” a rebuke to the Islamic theocracy which replaced Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Iran’s last reigning monarch.

Supporters of his son, Reza Pahlavi, claim that the pro-Pahlavi chants indicate an overwhelming signal that he is the “leader” of the possible revolution, a claim that is completely false.

Pahlavi may be the figurehead of the monarchists, but he does not represent the majority of the 92,000,000 people of Iran or the millions of Iranians in the diaspora. President Trump has been right to state that it would be inappropriate for him to meet with him as president, as Pahlavi has proven to be a divisive rather than unifying figure.

I met Pahlavi a decade ago and found him to be a “nice person,” as President Trump has stated. The former Crown Prince of Iran appeared to be down to earth and an earnest believer in democracy. I was impressed by his calls for an internationally monitored referendum to determine the successor to the current regime.

But after a few years of getting to know Pahlavi, I grew alarmed by his lack of executive and management skills, his poor judgment in people and his lack of vision and sense of direction. He supported democracy one minute but presented himself as the “leader of the revolution” and the “only alternative” to the regime the next.

Pahlavi’s abandonment of the opposition Georgetown Coalition — at the time viewed as a hopeful sign of unity for the notoriously divided Iranian opposition — and his advisors’ constant harassment and threatening of non-monarchist dissidents and journalists have clearly demonstrated that Pahlavi is an alienating figure.

What appeal Pahlavi may have is not due to any personal accomplishments — he has not created any successful businesses or built any institutions. Also, he does not have a revolutionary infrastructure inside or outside of Iran. He does not even appear to have a fully paid office staff.

His prominence stems from a sense of nostalgia for pre-revolutionary Iran, constant promotion by Persian-language media such as Iran International and reported cyber operations and diplomatic support by elements of the Israeli government.

He has also successfully developed the skill of presenting himself as a leader whenever major protests take place in Iran, though he is reported to spend much of his time in the Bahamas, including during the recent protests.

Pahlavi’s group of advisors appear to have few skills beyond attacking other members of the opposition and trying to present him to international audiences as the only alternative to the regime.

Iranians need real leadership, someone who is made for hard times and great peril. There are many Iranians who have withstood the regime with bared hands and have paid for it with their lives and limbs.

Many prominent opponents of the regime — such as the rapper Toomaj Salehi, 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi and the dissident Hossein Ronaghi — have spent months in jail under severe torture. They and the countless brave women and men of Iran, protesting every day and night, are the true leaders and heroes of the resistance against this evil regime.

Real leaders are often created through great struggle and hard times and pushed into positions of leadership by their peers.

Reza Pahlavi is not a man made for hard times.

The fall of the current regime will open the political space in Iran and make the public’s political preferences known. For now, we can only guess what the people of Iran want. That is why a future Iran must hold open and free elections to determine the future direction of the country.

Pahlavi, much like any Iranian, has the right to participate in any future elections, but pro-Pahlavi chants incessantly broadcast by pro-monarchy stations like Iran International do not mean Pahlavi has won any elections, either as the “leader” of the opposition or the shah.

Trump is right to wait and see who “emerges” in Iran as the most effective leader. Iran plays an important role in American national security — it has an advanced nuclear program, vast energy resources and a comparatively pro-American population.

A bet on a lame horse like Pahlavi could harm the Trump administration’s ability to bring Iran into the fold as a future US ally, especially given America’s conflicted and often troublesome relationship with the Pahlavi family.

It is time for a fresh start with Iran. The US should support Iranians as they choose their own leaders, on the streets and in free future elections.

Alireza Nader is an independent scholar of Iran and the Middle East based in Washington, DC.