Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: College football playoff semifinal picks, odds

At this point, we’re all pretty hard-pressed to find anything left to say at No. 1 Indiana’s expense. The Hoosiers have mapped a magical route to the College Football Playoff semifinals: 14-0, the Heisman winner under center, nation-leading efficiency, and a shutdown defense. 

How often is it that we see Alabama get taken to the whipping post? And in the Rose Bowl, no less. The Hoosiers drew a fine line between boys and men with a 38-3 flogging that allowed the Crimson Tide just 23 total rushing yards and 11 first downs. Fernando Mendoza was just as much of a spectator as the rest of us, but took home a fun souvenir of three touchdowns. 

No. 5 Oregon spent New Year’s Day with its own non-event, smothering Texas Tech 23-0. The Raiders were subjugated to the Ducks by penalties, three turnovers, and a single red-zone entry. Oregon wasn’t chasing style points; it strangled Tech with field positioning and coverage integrity. 

The question is, how much of that has been fostered since the Ducks fell to the Hoosiers 30-20 on Oct. 11? Let’s start with what happened: Indiana generated a throttling 50 percent pressure rate and sacked Oregon QB Dante Moore six times. Moore relinquished two costly interceptions in the fourth quarter that led to the go-ahead score. The Hoosiers made the most of their opportunities, going perfect in the red zone. 

Buried in that result, however, was that the Ducks ran the ball effectively against a top-three rushing defense. Defensively, Oregon forced Mendoza into high-stress passing situations, resulting in a 1-1 TD-INT ratio.

The answer is that the Ducks have spent this time leaning on heavier personnel groupings, which have enabled them to dominate the line of scrimmage and maintain that strong rushing efficiency. An Oregon rusher eclipsed 100 yards four times in the final six games of the season. 

Indiana hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 11 and has still been virtually untouchable in the red zone; it leads the nation in opponent scores per game allowed from within their 20-yard line. If that holds against Oregon, Indiana’s passing defense isn’t quite as flawless. It’s allowed 6.2 yards per attempt and a 63 percent completion rate, a product of ranking third-to-last among all FBS teams in opponent passing percentage. 

Alabama’s protection miscues masked a dip in Indiana’s pass-rush effectiveness in the Rose Bowl. Oregon’s line is a different beast. If Moore is granted time, he’s proved he can punish blitzes all year. If Indiana’s pressure rate drops in this game even modestly, Oregon’s explosive pass potential can be the difference maker. 

Betting on College Football?

Expect the Hoosiers to test Oregon’s discipline with the early-down efficiency of their star running back tandem in Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. Oregon, though, is built to force passing downs, and considering this is the only defense that kept Mendoza from producing a big-time play, there’s room for disruption. 

You’d think I’ve learned my lesson after the Hoosiers have already burned me in big spots this year. But with a blueprint handy from the first meeting, qualified metrics, and Moore dueling with Mendoza as the top two projected NFL draft picks, this Ducks team can cover as 3.5-point underdogs (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.