Indiana vs. Alabama prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for College Football Playoff showdown
It still takes some getting used to seeing Indiana as a touchdown favorite against Alabama in a football game, but that’s the world we live in these days.
The Hoosiers were a wrecking ball in 2025. Not only did they beat Ohio State to win the Big Ten Championship for the first time since President Lyndon B. Johnson was in office, but they also are the only undefeated team in college football, and their average margin of victory was an absurd 31.1 points (second to Texas Tech).
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They’re a juggernaut, and if one of the traditional bluebloods, like Alabama, boasted their portfolio, they’d be the odds-on favorite to win the national championship.
Instead, Indiana entered the College Football Playoff quarterfinals as the second choice at +300, trailing only Ohio State.
Rose Bowl: Indiana vs. Alabama odds, prediction
When you’re a 7-point favorite against another strong team, you need to have multiple paths to victory to have any value. Indiana certainly ticks that box.
The Hoosiers are an extremely balanced team, and can beat you with a prolific offense that ranks fourth in scoring, ninth in yards per play, 14th in EPA per play, and boasts the Heisman winner at quarterback. If the attack isn’t clicking, Indiana’s defense can take over.
The Hoosiers allowed just 11.8 points per game (third) in 2025, and held opponents to just 4.6 yards per play (14th).
According to SP+, a catch-call power ratings system developed by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Indiana finished the season as the second-best team in the country, boasting the fourth-best offense and second-best defense.
This spells trouble for Alabama.
While the Crimson Tide deserve some praise for showing gumption in their come-from-behind win over Oklahoma in Round 1, there were plenty of cracks that showed.
Alabama took advantage of some mistakes, breaks, and bounces, but the box score tells an uninspiring story.
Betting on College Football?
Oklahoma out-gained Alabama by 102 yards and the Tide converted just 2-of-12 attempts on third down, but they were able to hang around and punish Boomer Sooner for not putting the game to bed.
It’s hard to believe that the Tide will be as fortunate against Indiana.
The Hoosiers’ offense has been a beast all season, but the defense has been nearly as good, and is just a couple of weeks removed from holding Ohio State to 10 points in the Big Ten Championship.
Indiana can beat you in a defensive showdown. But it can also win a shootout. Alabama’s path to success seems to largely hinge on the Hoosiers beating themselves.
The Play: Indiana -7 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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