Ilya Sorokin building MVP case with plenty of Islanders work to do

WINNIPEG, Manitoba — A goaltender winning the Hart Trophy is an exceptionally rare thing, with Connor Hellebuyck breaking a 10-year drought at the position last season.

So with Hellebuyck in the crease for the Jets on Tuesday against the Islanders and Ilya Sorokin, it seemed as good a time as any to ponder whether Sorokin — the current favorite for the Vezina Trophy — has any chance of making it a double and also winning the league MVP.

To his teammates and head coach, the answer is that he certainly should.

“He’s been one of our best players this year,” Emil Heineman said. “He’s won a lot of games for us. So I think he should be up there for sure.”

“To me he’s the best goalie in the NHL,” Jean-Gabriel Pageau told The Post.

“Absolutely,” coach Patrick Roy said. “Absolutely.”

OK, but let’s be real for a second. The Islanders aren’t exactly objective about whether their teammates should win awards, understandably so. Is there a real case that Sorokin should be in the conversation for the Hart?

Well that depends how you look at it. If you strictly interpret the criteria of “player most valuable to his team,” then yes, Sorokin is without a doubt the most valuable Islander. Then again, if voters interpreted that strictly, every ballot would have the five best goaltenders on it, and that doesn’t tend to happen.

A year ago, when Hellebuyck beat out Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, the Winnipeg netminder led the league in goals against average (2.00), wins (47) and Evolving Hockey’s measure of goals saved above expected (49.48) while being second in save percentage (.925). Draisaitl finished with 106 points, which ranked third, while leading the league with 52 goals in 71 games played.

Sorokin, going into Tuesday night, wasn’t leading the league in any of the same categories. His four shutouts were tied for the most in the league, but his case for the Hart would rest more on analytics and on a literal interpretation of how valuable he is for the Islanders.

Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights for SportLogiq, the platform used by most NHL teams (including the Islanders) tweeted Sunday that by his company’s metrics, Sorokin leads the NHL in goals saved above expected and in goaltender steals — which is to say, games in which the goaltender “steals” a victory for his team — with nine. He’s also third in SportLogiq’s quality start metric. Evolving Hockey, which measures goals saved above expected differently from SportLogiq, has him behind Washington’s Logan Thompson in the category.

That’s all great, but most writers who vote for the Hart Trophy don’t have access to SportLogiq, so making a case primarily on their stats is going to be a tough sell for that reason alone, unfair as it may be.

There’s also the matter of Nathan MacKinnon, the current frontrunner, who already has 81 points in just 45 games on an Avalanche team that’s lost just four games in regulation. MacKinnon, the Hart winner in 2023-24, also leads the league in scoring with 36 goals and plus/minus at an absurd plus-49.

A good comparison for Sorokin’s case right now would actually be his own 2022-23 season, when he single-handedly willed the Islanders into the playoffs and finished with 51.36 goals saved above expected, the second-highest total ever tracked by Evolving Hockey. That year, Sorokin finished second in Vezina Trophy voting — a swing and a miss by voters — and ninth for the Hart.

The Islanders are a much better team this year, which should help Sorokin’s visibility come awards season, but at least right now, it seems unlikely he’ll break into the conversation for league MVP. Of course, there’s plenty of time for that to change, and the Islanders would understandably note that they wouldn’t be where they are without him.

“He has an impact every night he’s in the net for us,” Pageau said. “He gives us a chance to win, or he wins the game himself sometimes. He’s our best player most of the nights. I would for sure consider him in the Hart race.”