If Sinclair and Nexstar aren’t happy with Jimmy Kimmel tonight, it sets up a huge legal fight

The long-term relationship between broadcasters Nexstar and Sinclair and Disney’s ABC television network depends a lot on how late-night host Jimmy Kimmel responds to the controversy surrounding his remarks about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

Whether these two companies, which own 60 of the network’s affiliates across the country, believe the comedian shows some degree of contrition for inaccurately blaming Kirk’s death on Trump supporters.

Nexstar and Sinclair control of huge swath of local broadcasting, cover 22 million households in local markets across the country that airs ABC content.

ABC receives so-called affiliate fees from these local broadcasters to air its content, including sitcoms, national news and “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”

The broadcasters sell advertising against this content.

At issue for Nexstar and Sinclair: They also serve middle America and an audience that skews right-leaning and pro Trump.

Many viewers in red states see Kimmel as a partisan hack for his almost nightly anti-Trump diatribes, and fewer viewers mean the broadcasters will have a difficult time attracting local advertisers for this contents

The complexity is why Sinclair and Nexstar are closely watching what Kimmel says Tuesday night, his first day back after Disney and ABC suspended him for the Kirk comments.

Disney has not said if Kimmel will apologize for his comments made last Monday that the “MAGA gang” was looking to capitalize on Kirk’s assassination by making the killer out to be “anything other than one of them.”

Few in the media business Kimmel to offer a full throated apology; in fact, Kimmel’s suspension by Disney and ABC came after he told CEO Bob Iger he wouldn’t apologize for the comments.

But if he continues to inflame the situation either tonight or in the days and weeks ahead one or both of these broadcasters could continue to throttle running Kimmel on their ABC affiliates, people with direct knowledge of the matter say. 

The move could set the stage for high stakes legal battles between Disney and the broadcasters, who would effectively be breaching their affiliate agreements with the ABC’s parent company.

“I see this going to court,” said one former DOJ official now working in private practice advising big media companies.

“It’s in Kimmel’s interest not to apologize because it attracts eyeballs to his brand. And if he doesn’t, it serves Nextar and Sinclair to keep him off the air because they serve a right-leaning audience, and have business before Trump regulators.”

The former official added: “ABC and Disney are caught in the middle since Nexstar and Sinclair will probably withhold their affiliate fees as well.”

Reps for Disney, Sinclair and Nexstar had no immediate comment.

Also adding pressure to keep Kimmel on a tight leash is the regulatory environment.

As reported, Nexstar needs Trump Federal Communications Commission approval for its $6 billion deal to buy broadcaster Signa.

Disney, meanwhile, needs approval from the FCC to complete its purchase of the NFL Network.

Sinclair has been in growth mode in recent years and undoubtedly will find itself before the FCC.

The agency’s chairman, chairman Brendan Carr, has threatened to quash transactions if broadcasters don’t follow his interpretation of the FCC’s “public interest” rules that govern local broadcasting as opposed to cable.

Carr recently said that Kimmel’s remarks about Kirk fall outside those boundaries.

If the affiliate agreement is breached expect Disney to sue both companies, the former DOJ official as well as other media industry sources.

ABC owns so-called alternate networks in various markets that run programming such as the Home Shopping Network as opposed to its news and entertainment content.

It could begin to stream Kimmel through those venues as well, these people add.

In a statement released Monday, Disney announced Kimmel’s return adding that it did so after “thoughtful conversations with Jimmy,” over his “ill-timed and thus insensitive comments” about Kirk.

As I reported, Iger and Disney decided to bring Kimmel back despite the national uproar over his remarks because his show apparently makes money for the network, people inside the company told the Post.

Iger has also faced pressure from left-wing activists and many in the Hollywood community for caving to attempts by the Trump Administration to censor Kimmel’s’ decidedly one-sided comedy routine.

Kimmel earns around $16 million a year, and some media analysts say his show loses upwards of $20 million a year because his ratings have nose-dived in recent years, and ad revenues around the show have plummeted, people inside the company concede.

But sources inside Disney say the company squeezes a lot of juice out of Kimmel, including those affiliate fees for networks that pick up Kimmel’s programming, online ads and sponsorship deals.