Home buyers are flocking to these ‘recession-proof’ Midwest cities

America’s great reshuffling is losing steam, but where people are still buying homes says a lot about where they think the next downturn won’t hurt as much.

New data from the Bank of America Institute shows domestic moving activity fell again in the third quarter of 2025, extending a three-year slide as fewer Americans pack up for new jobs or new states. 

Yet amid the slowdown, a small cluster of Midwestern cities has quietly emerged as a bright spot. 

Indianapolis and Columbus ranked as the two fastest-growing major metro areas for the second quarter in a row, with Cleveland not far behind — making the Midwest home to three of the top five growth markets nationwide. 

The draw, analysts say, is simple: lower housing costs, steady employment, and large-scale infrastructure investments like data centers that promise long-term job stability even if the economy softens.

That stands in sharp contrast to much of the Sunbelt, where cities that boomed during the pandemic affordability rush are now seeing momentum fade. 

Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Houston — all former magnets for remote workers — have slipped into population declines or near-zero growth as high prices, oversupply and cooling migration dampen demand. 

Across the country, nearly two-thirds of the major metro areas tracked by Bank of America saw domestic outflows in the third quarter, including much of the Northeast and West Coast.

Housing costs are a major reason fewer people are moving at all. 

The steep rise in mortgage rates and home prices since 2022 has pushed many would-be buyers to stay put, or rent. 

Homeownership rates have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, while renting has become the default option for a growing share of households. 

But renters are finally seeing some relief. 

Bank of America payments data shows rent payments were essentially flat year-over-year in October, even as mortgage costs continued climbing, suggesting tenants are downsizing, negotiating harder, or switching units as new supply hits the market.

That supply glut is most pronounced in the South and West, where a construction boom collided with slowing migration, driving vacancy rates to their highest levels in years. 

In several Sunbelt cities — including Austin, Phoenix, Miami and Orlando — rent payments are now declining outright. The cooling has given renters extra cash to spend elsewhere, with discretionary spending by renters nearly matching homeowners for the first time in years, despite slower wage growth.