Gov. Hochul only leads Rep. Elise Stefanik by this much in hypothetical New York governor matchup: Siena poll

ALBANY – Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Rep. Elise Stefanik by just 14 points in a hypothetical matchup for New York Governor, according to a Siena University poll released Monday.

While still a hefty lead, it’s the smallest gap between Hochul and a potential GOP challenger since then Rep. Lee Zeldin trailed Hochul by only 11 points just three weeks before the 2021 general election. Hochul would go on to win by only 7 points.

“Stefanik can highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45-31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Siena poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.

The poll results come as Stefanik has seemingly consolidated the GOP field should she pull the trigger on a gubernatorial run following Hudson Valley Congressman Mike Lawler’s official exit from the race last month.

Stefanik also had some other bright spots from the Siena poll.

She eked out a few points over Hochul among independents, 35% to 32%. Stefanik also won among suburban voters — those from Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Rockland and Putnam Counties — 41% to 39%. Zeldin had similarly been leading among the two constituencies in October 2021.

A fifth of those polled weren’t familiar with Hochul or Stefanik.

“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively. While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik,” Greenberg said.

Hochul, once again, suffered from underwater favorability ratings this quarter.

Respondents rated her 42% favorable to 44% unfavorable. The Democrat has had negative favorability ratings in nine of the last 10 Siena polls.

Asked if New York is on the right track or heading in the wrong direction, 41% said “right track” as opposed to 45% who said it was heading in the “wrong direction.”