Ford to suffer $1B hit from brutal factory fire at key supplier: analysts

Ford will likely suffer as much as a $1 billion hit to its earnings from a devastating fire at a key supplier’s New York factory last month — with F-150 trucks expected to bear the brunt of the disaster, analysts warned on Wednesday.

A late-night fire on Sept. 16 leveled parts of a Novelis aluminum factory in Oswego, New York, and is likely to keep most of the factory down through early 2026.

While the Novelis factory acts as a supplier for many automakers, Ford is expected to be hit the hardest. It’s the largest user of the plant, since its popular F-150 trucks are made with a mainly aluminum body.

“Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions,” a Ford spokesperson told The Post in a statement.

The spokesperson added that Novelis is one of several aluminum suppliers that works with the automaker.

A union official at the plant said Wednesday that Ford is pausing production next week at its Dearborn, Mich., plant, which manufactures the F-150 electric pickup, due to the fire, according to Reuters.

The automaker said its supply of the metal for its F-150 trucks – the best-selling vehicle in the US – will be impacted through the end of the year.

“We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well,” Evercore ISI’s Chris McNally wrote in a note Wednesday, projecting a $500 million to $1 billion dent to Ford’s earnings. 

Shares in the automaker fell 1.4% on Wednesday, and are down 4.7% over the past five days.

It’s just the latest challenge facing American automakers, which are already struggling to swallow higher costs due to auto, aluminum and steel tariffs.

Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum each year for automakers including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to the Wall Street Journal.

US auto firms are also facing a global semiconductor shortage; work stoppages from the pandemic and a 2023 union strike; and a heavy reliance on China for rare-earth magnets often used in electric vehicles.

The Sept. 16 fire at the Novelis plant collapsed part of the factory’s roof and required 26 area fire departments to extinguish, the Oswego County fire officials told the Journal.

About 175 firefighters fought the flames, working almost entirely from ladder trucks, since the building was at risk of collapsing.

The cause of the fire remains under investigation, according to the Journal.