For a change, Primary Day won’t decide NYC’s next mayor

Don’t expect a final answer on New York’s future when the Primary Day polls close Tuesday night. Between absentee ballots, ranked-choice voting and the city’s glacial vote-transfer process, it may take weeks to know who won the Democratic nomination.

But even once the party’s mayoral candidate is officially named, voters may be in for a surprise the city hasn’t seen in decades.

In a deep-blue city where Democrats are used to wrapping up elections in June by default, this year might be different.

That’s because the Democratic frontrunners, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, may both appear on the general-election ballot regardless of Tuesday’s outcome.

Cuomo already secured his own “Fight and Deliver” party line.

Mamdani could keep himself in contention on the leftist Working Families Party ticket if he falls short.

After all, the party already crowned him as its No. 1 rank for mayor, suggesting its leaders are comfortable with the pro-intifada firebrand carrying their banner in November.

If both Cuomo and Mamdani continue past the primary, they’ll likely face Mayor Eric Adams (who’s seeking reelection on his own independent line), Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and lesser-known independent Jim Walden.

That would create a volatile five-way general election with overlapping coalitions, unpredictable math in a five-way split of the vote and what could be Gotham’s first truly competitive multi-candidate general mayoral election since 1969.

For once, New Yorkers might actually get a real choice come November.

But no matter how things shake out in the coming weeks, one thing is certain: Big Apple voters are fed up.

A recent Manhattan Institute poll finds 62% of likely 2025 voters say the city is on the wrong track.

That number isn’t just ambient gloom — it translates into sharp concerns about safety and quality of life.

Most New Yorkers want more police on the streets. Even more support cracking down on fare evasion, open-air drug use and vandalism.

Democrats are no exception — a majority agree.

These aren’t abstract culture-war issues. They’re everyday frustrations in neighborhoods that experience chronic public disorder, even as citywide crime rates begin to tick down.

That’s the context behind Cuomo’s lead heading into Primary Day. He’s running against absurdities — government-run grocery stores, letting mentally ill homeless people take over the subways and a far-left political movement that seems intent on fanning the flames of antisemitism.

Who is Cuomo’s base? Older women, outer-borough moderates and black and Latino voters.

Among primary voters who rank crime as their top issue, 71% pick Cuomo first; Mamdani gets just 6%.

Cuomo’s critics aren’t wrong — he has baggage.

But Democratic voters aren’t rallying around him out of adoration or nostalgia.

Rather, they see him as the only viable option left who seems remotely capable of running the largest city government in the nation.

Mamdani, by contrast, is a millennial socialist with an ideological fanbase and little broader appeal.

He’s activated highly educated white voters and the under-35 crowd cloistered in the city’s most progressive geographic enclaves along the East River.

But appealing to that coalition alone won’t let you sail to Gracie Mansion.

For years, New York’s left believed it could define the terms of debate by default. This race has exposed the limits of that theory.

Voters aren’t rejecting progressivism because they watch too much Fox News — they’re rejecting it because they live here and see its disastrous results.

They’ve watched their neighborhoods deteriorate while elected officials chase viral moments and utopian plans. (Remember then-Mayor Bill de Blasio’s promise to end the Tale of Two Cities?)

Meanwhile, Sliwa and Adams both appeal to less liberal, working-class voters who disdain the progressive left.

If both campaigns go the distance, they risk splitting that vote — unless something, or someone, steps in to consolidate it.

One possibility? Donald J. Trump.

The president, who won 30% of the NYC vote in 2024, could intervene somehow, say by endorsing one of them — and maybe offering the other a federal appointment to take him off the board, clearing the field for a single “law-and-order” candidate.

Something like that isn’t guaranteed. But in this topsy-turvy political environment, nothing can be ruled out.

A creative political maneuver could redraw the entire race. The potential shakeup should not be underestimated.

Tuesday may be the first vote — but it won’t be the final word.

As the general-election season begins, the question now is who can win over the city’s exhausted middle.

Voters don’t want a revolution, just a mayor who can stretch their budgets and keep the streets safe and clean.

That may not be a glamorous mandate. But it’s the one that matters.

Jesse Arm is the executive director of external affairs and chief of staff at the Manhattan Institute.