Florida locals rush to buy homes over fears of a NYC wave

On Tuesday night, as returns came in and Zohran Mamdani secured his victory to become New York City’s next mayor, the reaction was swift in a place 1,300 miles south: Miami.

Not from New Yorkers looking to flee — at least not yet — but from Florida locals, who began moving to secure homes before the wave they fear is coming.

By Wednesday morning, waterfront homes that might normally linger through Thanksgiving were instead moving into contract at a fast clip. 

Condos that had sat through the summer heat suddenly found themselves with multiple offers.

The buyers were not hedge fund partners fresh off a flight from Teterboro. They were Miami, Boca, and Palm Beach residents who believed they had one window left before wealthy New Yorkers arrived in force.

“We are definitely seeing interest from New York City intensify because of the election,” Dina Goldentayer, a luxury broker with Douglas Elliman in Miami, told The Post. “The area codes 917 and 212 are popping up now almost as much as they did at the height of the COVID pandemic.”

But the phones lighting up didn’t cause the surge. The fear of them did.

“What I’m really seeing, what has happened the last few weeks, is that the local buyers have been so fearful that the New Yorkers are going to start coming in and buying everything up, that it’s been the local buyers that have put everything, all the homes, under contract,” she said. “They’re scared of wealthy New Yorkers coming up and taking up the good product.”

Goldentayer says the urgency is unusually seasonal. 

“I don’t remember ever being this busy before Thanksgiving. Usually our season starts after Art Basel.”

In the last 48 hours, properties that had been quietly available for weeks flipped to pending as locals raced to close deals earlier than planned. 

“It’s usually like a two-week negotiation period, a two-week inspection period. But with the election that just took place, that’s what I believe has really fueled the market specifically this week,” she said. “The uptick started three to four weeks ago.”

The phenomenon isn’t isolated to Miami’s coastlines.

“When I speak to my counterparts in the other marketplaces like Boca Raton and Palm Beach, they are experiencing the same,” Goldentayer said. 

In Orlando and Winter Park, the same psychological shift is underway — just with different price points.

“I’ve had a local buyer over the last couple days have that exact conversation of what will happen now that New York City has elected this new mayor. It is a concern,” Bryan Hyser, of the Agency’s Orlando office, told The Post. “They are asking if this is the right time to buy before things get crazy.”

What was once a rational delay — waiting out high interest rates — now looks like a gamble.

“Every buyer says the same thing: I want to sit and wait until interest rates get better. But if rates are going to take longer and we’re going to see a large influx of buyers coming from out of state, it’s probably smart to buy today,” Hyser said.

He described a Winter Park deal where the buyer referenced both Mamdani’s platform and future property tax changes as reasons to lock something in sooner. 

“There’s a lot of uncertainty in New York and what the mayor is going to end up putting into policy,” he said. “People want to buy before the chaos.” 

At the very high end of the market — waterfront estates in Miami Beach, oceanfront in Palm Beach and new luxury towers along the Intracoastal — wealthy New Yorkers are not panicking. They are planning.

Daniel de la Vega, president of One Sotheby’s International Realty, said the potential migration is real but slow-moving. 

“We were curious because [Mamdani ran] on such drastic policies. A lot of people are questioning whether he’s actually going to be able to implement them,” he said. “I firmly believe that we will see it trickle in over the next four years.”

He said the ultra-luxury segment has already been active. 

“In the luxury market, we have sold so much in the $20 million plus range in the last two months. And it’s been over $200 million in real estate sold,” de la Vega said.

The buyers are explicit about their reasoning. 

“They say ‘We’re not ready to move today, but we think we’ll be ready to move in 18 months.’ And if not, it’s going to be a great investment for us at the very least,” he said.

In New York, however, there has been no corresponding sell-off.

“For the regular New Yorkers, and I’m talking about the millionaires, which are still extremely affluent, but they’re entrenched in school systems, they’re entrenched in careers — I don’t think people can just pick up and leave that quickly,” Ruthie Assouline of Douglas Elliman said.

She said two groups are emerging: Those who were already considering relocating and may now accelerate their timelines, and those who plan to stay unless conditions meaningfully deteriorate. 

“You have plenty of people that were on the edge for a variety of reasons, that now they’re probably pushed out the door after this election,” she said. “But you also have a huge amount of people that are diehard New Yorkers. They’re going to fight and stay in that city till the end of time.”

Assouline said New Yorkers who called after the election were not looking to sell. They wanted options. 

“Did we get several calls yesterday from our New Yorkers saying we’re flying in next week? We want to have another option. Yeah. But they didn’t say we need to sell New York. They just said … we want that optionality,” she said.

She expects the real shift — if it comes — to occur once Mamdani governs, not campaigns. 

“He just got elected. It’s been a day. It’s a week by week situation. So you’re monitoring the data and we’ll see how it’s going to unfold,” she said.

Market data supports that view. Manhattan inventory has not meaningfully changed.

“Basically inventory between the end of September and the end of October rose .002%,” said appraiser Jonathan Miller. “Like there was no real change.”

That stability is shaping broker guidance. 

“I think it’s going to take six months to see how things really shake out,” Douglas Elliman’s Keyan Sanai told The Post.

“People are not just going to pack and go, but whoever is packing and going is because they don’t see themselves raising their kids in the city,” Ethan Assouline of Douglas Elliman said. “I think everybody is watching and monitoring and coming in January, within the first few months, [Mamdani] may piss off a lot of people who will just start moving for the next school year.”