FIFA Club World Cup picks, predictions Tuesday

Fluminense has been the biggest surprise at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. 

In a tournament that featured several European powers like Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea, it was easy to assume Fluminense was there as a make-weight. 

They’ve been anything but.

One of two teams (along with Real Madrid) that’s yet to be defeated in this tournament, Fluminense has been a defensive stalwart through five matches. 

Fluzão has allowed just three goals, pitched three shutouts, and has conceded just 3.9 expected goals (xG) despite playing the likes of Borussia Dortmund and Inter Milan.

They are now just one win over Chelsea away from a trip to the finals.

FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. Fluminense preview

While Chelsea have plenty of attacking talent, they aren’t the type of team that wants to break out of its shell and turn matches on their head.

Enzo Maresca’s side values possession, and they want to build things slowly. The Blues want to lull defenses to sleep.

With all the technical skill in their lineup, Chelsea can execute that gameplan against plenty of teams, especially those that want to press the ball.

Fluminense isn’t just going to sit back, but they’re unlikely to apply much pressure when Chelsea has the ball. They’ll keep their shape and hope to get their chances on the counter, not unlike Palmeiras tried to do in the quarterfinals.

And although that match ended 2-1 in favor of Chelsea, Palmeiras held the Blues to just 1.2 expected goals and zero big scoring chances. 

FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. Fluminense pick

There’s very little doubt about how Fluminense will want this match to play out. Fluzão have almost no chance of winning a back-and-forth match with Chelsea, so they’ll hope to keep things at a simmer from the opening whistle. 

But don’t expect Chelsea to bring some heavy-metal football to MetLife on Tuesday, either.

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The Blues will be pragmatic with the ball, knowing that Fluminense will be waiting to pounce on a mistake.

Given how these two teams want to play, there are not that many variations of how this match will unfold. 

Fluminense has some value at +460 odd, but you can pair the Brazilians with the Under 2.5 at bet365 to get that payout up to +800, which makes sense because their most viable path to a win is in a mud fight.

The Play: Fluminense/Under 2.5 goals (+800, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.