FIFA Club World Cup picks, best bets Friday
Neither Fluminense nor Al-Hilal was supposed to be here.
Fluminense unsurprisingly finished second in Group F behind Borussia Dortmund, but were huge underdogs against Inter Milan in the Round of 16.
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Not only did the Brazilians defeat the Italian giants, but they shut them out, 2-0, in a comprehensive effort.
Al-Hilal’s path to the quarterfinals at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup was even more surprising.
The runners-up in the 2024-25 Saudi League finished second in Group H behind Real Madrid, meaning they had to play Manchester City in the Round of 16.
The Saudis fell behind City early, but then went toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola’s side before winning the match, 4-3, through a dramatic winner by Marcos Leonardo in extra time.
Al-Hilal certainly caught some breaks in the match, but it was not a fluky win. They created 3.2 expected goals and eight big scoring chances against the Cityzens.
Oddsmakers are having a tough time separating Fluminense and Al-Hilal after such impressive wins. The latter is a slight -134 favorite to advance, but it’s essentially a toss-up.
Manchester City was willing to bet on itself in a back-and-forth engagement with Al-Hilal, but it would be surprising to see Fluminense follow that same path.
Fluzão has been the most impressive defensive side in the tournament, holding their opponents to just two goals and 3.84 expected goals in four matches. That run includes three clean sheets, two of which came against Dortmund and Inter.
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Fluminense vs. Al-Hilal pick
Fluminense will be happy to sit deep and dare Al-Hilal to break them down.
To their credit, Al-Hilal has been in good offensive form in this tournament.
They were held to just one goal in their first two matches of the tournament, but they’ve scored six times since then, and they’ve created plenty of scoring chances against teams like Real Madrid, Manchester City and RB Salzburg.
The biggest worry for Al-Hilal will be how they can handle a team that has no intention of taking the game to them.
Against City, Madrid, and Salzburg, Al-Hilal were able to play a more calculated, counterattacking style. But against Fluminense, the script will be flipped and Al-Hilal will be forced to set the tempo.
That should play right into the hands of Fluminense, who are good value to get through to the semifinals.
The Play: Fluminense to advance (+100, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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