College football Week 7 predictions: Picks against the spread

This week’s slate is loaded, featuring the Red River Shootout (Texas-Oklahoma), the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry (Georgia-Auburn), Michigan’s first trip to USC in 68 years, Alabama’s visit to undefeated Missouri and a battle of Big 12 title contenders (Arizona State-Utah).

Then, there is Indiana, traveling to Oregon, with another chance to show it belongs.

On paper, the Hoosiers look worthy of their No. 7 ranking, featuring top-10 units on both sides of the ball and owning one of the most impressive wins of the season in their 53-point victory over Illinois.

Last season, Indiana looked just as strong under new coach Curt Cignetti, unleashing blowout after blowout until its only two ranked opponents (Ohio State, Notre Dame) handed the Hoosiers double-digit losses.

No. 3 Oregon is in another weight class, led by a coach (Dan Lanning) who is 40-6 with the Ducks, whose quarterback (Dante Moore) may be the only one in the nation playing better than Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.

“We’re built for big moments,” Moore said this week. “Coach Lanning this week is kind of speaking about Secretariat. … Horses, they keep their blinders on, keeping tunnel vision, focused, within their lane, within themselves. I feel like this team does a great job not listening to the outside noise. We run our own race. We don’t listen to the hype.”

Oregon (-7.5) can handle the high stakes. Indiana, which nearly lost at Iowa, will learn the hard way again, traveling 2,200 miles to play at Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks haven’t lost in nearly three years. 

WASHINGTON (-10.5) over Rutgers

The Big Ten’s commercial reach begins at the Space Needle and ends at the Statue of Liberty. Everyone involved in conference realignment should be arrested.

Ohio State (-14.5) over ILLINOIS

The Buckeyes won’t have trouble scoring against a team that’s allowed an average of more than 40 points in its past three games. But the Illini —featuring a quarterback (Luke Altmyer) with a shaky big-game history and the nation’s 113th-ranked ground game — have no chance of doing the same against a team that’s allowed 25 points in five games.

Alabama (-3) over MISSOURI

You won’t find a more fraudulent 5-0 record than the Tigers have earned against the 109th-ranked schedule. The Crimson Tide dominated last year’s matchup (34-0) — Missouri went 0-3 against ranked SEC teams last season — and Kalen DeBoer has won 13 of 15 games against ranked teams, following wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt.

Washington State (+32.5) over OLE MISS

It won’t be easy for the undefeated Rebels to stay focused on the present with a trip to Georgia looming.

Oklahoma (+1.5) over Texas

Stay away if John Mateer doesn’t suit up. Because at that point, you’d either be banking on an unproven backup or the mess known as Arch Manning — who just threw two picks and was sacked six times against Florida — suddenly living up to his name against the nation’s best pass rush.

Virginia Tech (+14.5) over GEORGIA TECH

The Hokies held South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers to 1.9 yards per carry. Diego Pavia was kept in check for the majority of Vanderbilt’s win. Virginia Tech has reason to believe it can also slow Haynes King, who is coming off a near-upset to Wake Forest.

N.C. State (+22.5) over NOTRE DAME

The Irish may not even show up after the Wolfpack’s 56-10 win over the Campbell Fighting Camels.

Arkansas (+12.5) over TENNESSEE

The Hogs — who beat the Vols last season — should be embarrassed to have Bobby Petrino back in charge, but he has done wonders for dual-threat Taylen Green, who is averaging 368 total yards per game.

TEXAS A&M (-7.5) over Florida

Billy Napier bought himself at least another week with the Gators win over Texas, but the 108,000 fans at Kyle Field will help make that victory a distant memory. Florida scored a total of 17 points in their two road games this season and now face the highest-ranked defense it has seen this season.

TEXAS TECH (-14) over Kansas

The Big 12 doesn’t look wide open anymore. Keep riding the Red Raiders, who have won every game this season by at least 20 points.

AUBURN (+3.5) over Georgia

The Tigers, who could have easily won at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M, have the advantage of an extra week’s rest/prep, plus a prime-time kickoff in one of the sport’s best environments. Jackson Arnold’s struggles came against two of the top three pass-rushing units in the country. Georgia ranks 122nd in sack percentage and has covered only one its past six games.

Michigan (+2.5) over USC

The 2,200-mile trip is a concern (see: Penn State-UCLA), but the Coliseum won’t be a problem for the visitors who left Nebraska’s sold-out stadium with a win. The Trojans have feasted on the weak — yet to play a top-80 scoring defense — and will lose the battle in the trenches, getting pushed around by a strong offensive line that’s allowed Justice Haynes to become the fourth-leading rusher in the nation.

South Carolina (+9.5) over LSU

The Tigers have averaged fewer than 20 points per game against FBS opponents (including Louisiana Tech), with Garrett Nussmeier throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions. LaNorris Sellers is far more likely to create fireworks, following last year’s 36-33 loss to LSU, in which the dual-threat ran for two touchdowns and 8.8 yards per carry.

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Betting on College Football?

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Arizona State (+5.5) over UTAH

Kyle Whittingham’s track record isn’t enough anymore. It has been two years since the Utes notched a noteworthy victory, while the reigning Big 12 champs have won meaningful bouts in back-to-back games (Baylor, TCU). Utah’s 13th-ranked run game was limited to 3.3 yards per carry against Texas Tech’s top five run defense (2.4 yards per rush). The Sun Devils allow 2.5 yards per carry.

BEST BETS: Ohio State, South Carolina, Arizona State.

SEASON: 37-53 (6-12).

2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31.