College football Week 5 predictions: Picks against the spread

Reality IS complicated.

Thomas Jefferson was a founding father of democracy, who fathered several children with one of his hundreds of slaves. FDR led the U.S. through the Great Depression and World War II, while permitting internment camps for Japanese-Americans.

Conference realignment has irreparably destroyed the soul of college sports, but has raised the ceiling of football’s regular season, producing more marquee matchups than ever before.

As much as I despise a world where No. 3 Penn State and No. 6 Oregon share a conference, it is a gift to be given a potential national championship preview in September. The Ducks and Nittany Lions collided last season in the Big Ten title game, when Oregon clinched the playoff’s top seed with a 45-37 win. Penn State ultimately went deeper in the postseason.

The Nittany Lions opened this season with a stronger outlook, returning Drew Allar and much of the core of last season’s semifinalist, but haven’t lived up to their expectations in three games against JV teams. The Ducks have looked as strong as any team in the nation, but also haven’t played an opponent with a pulse.

In a coin-flip game, Happy Valley could be the deciding factor, hosting 100,000-plus fans for the prime-time “White Out.”

Despite James Franklin’s atrocious record against top 10 teams (4-20), the Penn State coach enters this game off a bye, and with the more experienced roster, capable of shaking the confidence of Ducks quarterback Dante Moore, who has thrown five interceptions in three career road games against power conference teams and has never entered an atmosphere like this.

This summer, Allar stated that Penn State “need(s) to get over that hump” against elite programs. The Nittany Lions’ (-3.5) time is now.

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Florida State (-6.5) over VIRGINIA

Since dominating Alabama, the Seminoles defeated a pair of low-level opponents by a combined 130 points. After last season’s debacle, Mike Norvell’s team is locked in, regardless of the situation.

Tcu (+2.5) over ARIZONA STATE

Don’t be surprised if the Horned Frogs win the Big 12 or Josh Hoover takes the Heisman. TCU’s underrated defense — ranked sixth in third-down conversion rate — puts both preseason long shots in play.

Usc (-6.5) over ILLINOIS

What Indiana exploited — in its 63-10 beatdown of Illinois — the Trojans excel at. USC’s Jayden Maiava enters with the nation’s highest passer rating, while the Trojans lead the nation in sacks. Illinois forced two incompletions against Indiana and allowed seven sacks.

SYRACUSE (+5.5) over Duke

Despite their road win at Clemson, the Orange will get little love this week, following the season-ending Achilles injury to quarterback Steve Angeli. But LSU transfer Rickie Collins gave reason to believe in relief work last week after nearly winning the quarterback competition this summer.

WAKE FOREST (+13.5) over Georgia Tech

This could end up looking incredibly stupid when Haynes King surpasses 200 yards rushing, but the Yellow Jackets have won just two of their past seven road games and underwhelmed in their only trip this season at Colorado.

Notre Dame (-4.5) over ARKANSAS

The Hogs might be unbeaten, if not for back-to-back games swung by late fumbles. Notre Dame — whose two losses came by a total of four points to a pair of top 10 teams — will remove the possibility of another stomach punch by carving up the nation’s 98th-ranked run defense, led by the standout backfield of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.

Utah State (+22.5) over VANDERBILT

The Commodores are one of the best stories in the sport, having gone 4-0 for the first time in 17 years. But I am not prepared to live in a world where Vandy is laying more than three touchdowns and has one eye on next week’s clash at Alabama.

WASHINGTON (+8.5) over Ohio State

Dual-threat Demond Williams Jr. guides a top 15 offense, which has committed one turnover all season, leads the nation in third-down conversion rate, and has scored touchdowns on 94 percent of its red zone trips. Ohio State’s first-year starter Julian Sayin threw three interceptions in games against Grambling and Ohio. A 2,400-mile trip and a top 25 defense won’t make his first career road start any easier.

Lsu (+1.5) over OLE MISS

After struggling to beat Kentucky and Arkansas, Lane Kiffin’s team is a suspect favorite after steamrolling Tulane. The Rebels’ top 10 offense would have more of my respect if they’d played a single top 85 defense. Brian Kelly’s revamped defense hasn’t allowed more than 10 points in a game this season, while potential future No. 1 overall pick Garrett Nussmeier appears back on track after suffering a torso injury.

TEXAS A&M (-6.5) over Auburn

The Tigers play the second of three straight games against top-10 opponents. While Jackson Arnold won’t be ready to bounce back — playing to an away crowd of 100,000 plus, with just one win in five career road games — after getting mauled at Oklahoma, the Aggies’ Marcel Reed could soon be a Heisman contender, riding the momentum of 397 total yards at Notre Dame.

IOWA (+7.5) over Indiana

The Hoosiers could make a second straight playoff appearance, but their stock is too high to buy now. The Hawkeyes haven’t lost a home game by more than a touchdown in three years.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7.5) over Tennessee

The Vols leave Knoxville for the first time this season, having lost seven of their past 11 road games under Josh Heupel. Joey Aguilar also struggled on the road for Appalachian State, throwing 19 of his 24 interceptions away from home. The Bulldogs — who already pulled a home upset against Arizona State — average 1.3 interceptions per game.

Arizona (+6.5) over IOWA STATE

The Cyclones are a Big 12 contender, but unlikely to impress the playoff committee without winning a conference title. Iowa State (4-0) has won its past seven games against FBS teams by an average of less than four points per game.

Betting on College Football?

GEORGIA (-2.5) over Alabama

The spread suggests that the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide would be near-equals on a neutral field. On paper, the talent is a wash. But Georgia — which passed a tough test at Tennessee — owns a decisive edge with the best coach in the country (Kirby Smart), while Alabama has lost four of its past five road games under Kalen DeBoer.

BEST BETS: Tcu, Arizona, Georgia

SEASON: 26-34 (5-7)

2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31

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